Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos collide in a bantamweight clash on November 8th at UFC Vegas 111. Simon’s wrestling-heavy pressure meets Barcelos’ striking volume in a fight where relentless pace battles technical defense. This matchup features elite takedown attempts against superior defensive wrestling, with both fighters looking to solidify their positions.
Simon stands 5’6″ with a 69 inch reach and a 22-6 record. He showcases conservative striking at 2.93 per minute with 44% accuracy while absorbing 3.72. His striking defense sits at 61%, showing solid defensive awareness despite lower output. Simon’s grappling dominates his approach with elite 5.01 takedowns per fight at 43% accuracy and 0.3 submission attempts. His 75% takedown defense keeps scrambles in his favor when opponents shoot.
Barcelos measures 5’7″ with a 67 inch reach and a 20-5 record. He shows aggressive striking at 4.87 per minute with excellent 52% accuracy while absorbing 4.40. His striking defense registers at 60%, nearly matching Simon’s. Barcelos’ grappling shows solid activity with 2.33 takedowns per fight at 33% accuracy and 0.6 submission attempts. His impressive 85% takedown defense stands as his most critical asset against Simon’s wrestling pressure.
This UFC fight breaks down to whether Barcelos’ elite takedown defense can neutralize Simon’s relentless takedown attempts per fight, or if Simon’s wrestling pressure overwhelms Barcelos’ defensive grappling. Barcelos holds clear advantages in striking output, making him dangerous in extended standup exchanges.
However, Simon’s path to victory runs through his Merab Dvalishvili-style wrestling pressure. His 5.01 takedown attempts per fight at 43% accuracy creates constant scrambles that drain Barcelos’ energy even without completing takedowns. Simon’s recent evolution as a striker, evidenced by his knockout of Javid Basharat, adds another dimension to his pressure. However, Barcelos still holds his own on the ground and if he can manage to stuff some takedowns, the fight will be in his favor.
If we bet on this fight, we are going with Raoni Barcelos to win by unanimous decision.
Ricky Simon enters as the favorite at -168 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Raoni Barcelos comes in as the +142 underdog. The odds reflect confidence in Simon’s wrestling pressure overcoming Barcelos’ striking advantages and defensive grappling.
The odds for the fight going the distance stand at -205. The overwhelming probability favors judges deciding this battle, with early finish odds at +156 reflecting both fighters’ durability and defensive capabilities.
Here are the best bets for Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos fight:
Fair value on the striker who recently took on and defeated Cody Garbrandt. His high takedown defense will force Simon to resort to striking, where Barcelos holds the advantage.
Excellent odds on a likely outcome. Barcelos’ 85% takedown defense and durability should survive Simon’s pressure, but defending 5.01 takedown attempts over three rounds drains energy and loses rounds. Simon’s grinding style makes judges inevitable.
Safe bet despite steep odds. Both fighters’ defensive capabilities and durability make early finishes unlikely. Simon’s wrestling pressure controls without necessarily finishing, while Barcelos’ chin has held up against elite competition. Judges are the highest probability outcome.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Brett Davis – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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