UFC Rio delivers another intriguing women’s strawweight clash this Saturday night. Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz pits a rising Brazilian contender against a Polish veteran who’s seen it all. Polastri fights in front of her home crowd, which always adds extra motivation and pressure. Kowalkiewicz has been fighting at the highest level since 2015, facing everyone worth mentioning in the division.
Kowalkiewicz once challenged for the UFC title back in 2016, losing a decision to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her prime. Those days feel like ancient history now as she struggles against younger, hungrier fighters. Polastri represents that new generation trying to climb the ladder while veterans block the path. She’s just 27 with plenty of room to grow and improve.
Julia Polastri brings a 13-5 record and stands 5 ‘2 ” with a 64 inch reach. Her striking volume is impressive at 5.62 significant strikes landed per minute with excellent 55% accuracy. She also absorbs 5.37 strikes per minute. Her striking defense sits at 56%, which is solid for such an aggressive fighter. Polastri’s takedown game shows promise with 0.87 attempts per fight and remarkable 80% accuracy. Her takedown defense of 58% needs improvement after giving up five takedowns against Loopy Godinez recently.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters at 16-9 and stands 5’3″ with a 64 inch reach, matching Polastri’s dimensions exactly. Her striking output of 5.54 significant strikes per minute nearly matches her opponent’s pace. However, her accuracy drops to just 43%, meaning she throws more wasted shots. Kowalkiewicz absorbs 5.51 strikes per minute with 57% striking defense. Her takedown game is minimal at 0.31 attempts per fight with poor 22% accuracy. But her takedown defense sits at 74%, showing she knows how to stuff shots.
The oddsmakers are showing major confidence in the Brazilian fighting at home here. According to FanDuel, Julia Polastri opens as a massive -590 favorite. Meanwhile, Karolina Kowalkiewicz sits at +430 as a substantial underdog.These odds make sense given the matchup dynamics and both fighters’ recent performances.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -350. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (+245) reflect that.
Polastri’s path to victory runs straight through volume striking and maintaining pressure for fifteen minutes. Her output and accuracy give her clear advantages in prolonged exchanges. Kowalkiewicz’s lower accuracy means she will waste energy throwing shots that miss. The home crowd will push Polastri through any difficult moments, giving her that emotional boost veterans sometimes lack. Her takedown accuracy of 80% could surprise Kowalkiewicz if the striking isn’t working.
Kowalkiewicz’s only realistic path involves frustrating Polastri with veteran tricks and pace control. Her experience in big moments could help her weather early storms and settle into her rhythm. The Polish fighter’s improved striking defense gives her tools to survive without taking massive damage. If she can drag Polastri into deep waters in the third round, cardio advantages might emerge.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Julia Polastri to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Jessica Alcheh – Imagn Images)
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