The lightweight division has always been the UFC’s most stacked weight class. This weekend in Rio de Janeiro, two of the division’s elite warriors will collide with Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot. The stakes couldn’t be higher for both men. Oliveira needs to bounce back from a devastating loss, while Gamrot gets the chance to prove he belongs among the very best.
Oliveira knows what it’s like to hold UFC gold. The Brazilian submission wizard ruled the lightweight division before losing his title on the scales, then dropping a submission loss to Islam Makhachev. His last outing was brutal: a first-round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria.
Gamrot’s last fight was against Ludovit Klein. He won the fight via decision. However, the level of opposition wasn’t that high. Before that, he had lost a split decision to Dan Hooker. Now, he will look to announce his comeback in the top 5 of the division.
Both these fighters stand at 5’10” tall and compete at 155 pounds. Oliveira holds a slight reach advantage with 74 inches compared to Gamrot’s 70 inches. That extra length could matter when they’re exchanging strikes. The Brazilian’s record of 35-11 shows he’s been through wars. Gamrot has a cleaner record of 25-3 -1 NC.
The striking statistics reveal closely matched fighters. Oliveira lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy. Gamrot isn’t far behind at 3.35 strikes per minute with 51% accuracy. Where things get interesting is defense. Gamrot’s 59% striking defense beats Oliveira’s 48%, meaning the Polish fighter does better at avoiding damage. On the receiving end, Oliveira absorbs 3.26 strikes per minute while Gamrot takes 3.04.
The grappling stats paint a fascinating picture. Gamrot attempts an impressive 5.33 takedowns per fight compared to Oliveira’s 2.23. However, Oliveira’s real weapon isn’t the takedown, it’s what happens once the fight hits the mat. His submission average of 2.6 attempts per fight absolutely dwarfs Gamrot’s 0.1. Gamrot wants top control and ground-and-pound. Oliveira hunts for necks and limbs. The takedown defense numbers also matter here. Gamrot stuffs 90% of takedown attempts while Oliveira stops just 56%. If Gamrot can put Oliveira on his back, things could get interesting.
The bookmakers are having trouble choosing between these two fighters. According to FanDuel, Mateusz Gamrot is sitting at a slight favourite of -120. Meanwhile, Charles Oliveira is a slight underdog at -106. That’s incredibly tight pricing for a main event. The odds suggest this could genuinely go either way.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +182. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-240) reflect that.
This matchup comes down to one question: can Gamrot avoid Oliveira’s submissions while implementing his wrestling? The Polish fighter’s 90% takedown defense is elite, but he’s never faced someone with Oliveira’s opportunistic submission game. ‘Do Bronx’ doesn’t need to take you down, he can catch submissions from bottom position or during scrambles.
Fighting in Rio gives Oliveira an emotional boost that shouldn’t be underestimated. Brazilian crowds are among the most passionate in combat sports. That energy could push Oliveira through difficult moments. But he didn’t have enough time to recover fully from the Topuria knockout in June.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Mateusz Gamrot to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Sergei Belski – Imagn Images)
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