UFC Houston’s heavyweight clash features Serghei Spivac facing Ante Delija in a crucial divisional matchup. This 3-round bout pits two finishers against each other in what promises to be an explosive heavyweight battle at Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Delija opens as a -150 favorite, with Spivac at +125 as the underdog. This heavyweight showdown represents an important opportunity for both fighters looking to climb back into contention.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Houston: Spivac vs Delija, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Houston
Weight class: UFC Heavyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card bout
Date & time: February 21, 2026 – Main card 08:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~9:15 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: February 19, 2026 – 12:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Spivac vs Delija.
Tale Of The Tape
Serghei Spivac
Ante Delija
Record
17-6
26-7
Age
31
35
Height
6’3″
6’3″
Reach
78″
78″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
3.45
4.81
Striking Accuracy
48%
45%
Takedowns
4.21
0.00
Takedown Defense
63%
0%
Submission Avg.
0.5
0.0
Delija holds advantages in striking volume (4.81 vs 3.45 per minute) while Spivac dominates in grappling metrics. Spivac’s 4.21 takedowns per fight with 62% accuracy creates massive wrestling advantage against Delija’s non-existent takedown offense and questionable defense. Both fighters share identical physical measurements, creating a pure skill vs style matchup.
Fighter Breakdown – Serghei Spivac Analysis
Spivac comes in with a 17-6 record including victories over Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura. The 31 year old Moldovan is currently ranked #7 but is riding a two-fight losing streak after losses to Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Strengths: Elite wrestling with 4.21 takedowns per fight at 62% accuracy. Dangerous submission game with 8 career submission wins. Durable with only one UFC submission loss. Excellent scrambling ability. Championship-level grappling credentials.
Weaknesses: Two-fight losing streak with both losses coming in 2025. Poor striking defense (50%) leaves openings. Age 31 with accumulated heavyweight damage. Limited striking volume. Can be overwhelmed by elite strikers.
Betting Angles: Spivac’s +125 moneyline offers value if his wrestling dominates. Spivac by submission (+600) provides excellent payout. Fight doesn’t go distance (-320) is heavily juiced but likely correct.
Delija brings a 26-7 record with recent victories over Marcin Tybura and Yorgan De Castro. The 35 year old Croatian is a former PFL Heavyweight Champion but is coming off a controversial knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Strengths: Explosive knockout power with 13 career KO/TKO wins. Superior striking volume (4.81 per minute). Former PFL champion with championship experience. Aggressive striking style. Dangerous in pocket exchanges.
Weaknesses: No wrestling offense whatsoever (0 takedowns). Zero percent takedown defense. Poor striking defense (38%). Coming off controversial knockout loss. Age 35 with accumulated damage. Limited grappling credentials. Can be controlled by elite wrestlers.
Betting Angles: Delija’s -150 moneyline offers minimal value. Delija by KO/TKO (+115) is our primary angle.
This offers excellent value for Delija’s clearest path to victory. Spivac’s poor 50% striking defense combined with Delija’s 4.81 strikes per minute creates perfect conditions for a knockout. Delija just knocked out Marcin Tybura with an uppercut in round one, showcasing devastating power.
Spivac has been stopped by strikes four times in his career. If Delija can stuff early takedowns and keep the fight standing, his superior striking volume should produce a finish. At +115 (implied 46.5%), we project this outcome closer to 55%.
While we favor Delija overall, Spivac’s elite grappling creates devastating upset potential. Delija’s zero percent takedown defense against Spivac’s 4.21 takedowns per fight creates inevitable grappling exchanges.
Once on top, Spivac has submitted Derrick Lewis, Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa with arm-triangle chokes and armbars. Delija has minimal submission defense experience. At +600 (implied 14.3%), this offers massive value if Spivac’s wrestling overcomes Delija’s striking.
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Small stake only. Both fighters possess finishing ability with heavyweight power and grappling danger. Delija’s aggressive striking creates early knockout opportunities, while Spivac’s wrestling could produce quick submissions.
The books favor an early finish. At -124 (implied 55.4%), this represents solid value for a first-round finish. Keep stakes at 0.5 unit maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Ante Delija by KO/TKO
We are backing Delija to hand Spivac his third consecutive loss with explosive striking. While Spivac holds massive wrestling advantages, Delija’s knockout power and aggressive style should prove decisive.
Delija’s 4.81 strikes per minute against Spivac’s 50% striking defense creates multiple opportunities for clean power shots. Spivac will likely attempt early takedowns, but Delija’s power makes every exchange dangerous. One clean uppercut or overhand right changes everything at heavyweight.
We expect Delija to stuff Spivac’s initial takedown attempts while landing heavy combinations in round one. If Spivac survives the early onslaught, Delija should continue finding openings in round two before landing a finishing strike.
This represents a calculated pick based on recent form and stylistic matchup. Delija’s momentum combined with Spivac’s defensive vulnerabilities creates a perfect storm for a knockout victory.
How to Bet UFC Houston: Tips for This Card
Beyond the heavyweight clash, UFC Houston offers several compelling matchups.
Card Tips:
Delija’s 38% striking defense creates knockout vulnerability despite power advantage.
Melquizael Costa’s five-fight winning streak with four victories in 2025 shows exceptional momentum.
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic co-main features two finishers with explosive knockout power.
UFC Houston Fight Card
Main Card (08:00 p.m. ET – UFC Fight Pass)
Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez – Middleweight bout, 5 rounds
Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Serghei Spivac vs Ante Delija – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Zachary Reese vs Michel Pereira – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (05:00 p.m. ET – UFC Fight Pass)
Chidi Njokuani vs Carlos Leal – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Ode’ Osbourne vs Alibi Idiris – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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