The UFC is heading Down Under once again, and Australian fight fans are buzzing with excitement. UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes promises to deliver another memorable night of action. Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell will showcase the first fight of the main card. This lightweight showdown has all the ingredients for fireworks: a hometown hero looking to continue his winning streak against a knockout artist hungry to make his mark on Australian soil.
Nolan carries the hopes of the Perth crowd on his shoulders while Campbell arrives as the confident fighter ready to spoil the party. The clash represents more than just another UFC bout. It’s a crossroads fight that could define both men’s futures in the stacked lightweight division.
Tom Nolan stands at 6’3″ with a 73 inch reach. The 25 year old Australian towers over most lightweights and uses every inch of that frame effectively. His striking statistics paint the picture of an active fighter who stays busy on his feet, landing 5.82 significant strikes per minute while maintaining a decent 45% accuracy.
The concerning part of Nolan’s game shows up in his defensive numbers. Absorbing 4.85 significant strikes per minute with only 46% striking defense suggests he’s willing to trade shots rather than avoid damage entirely. His takedown game remains limited with just 0.41 attempts per fight and a concerning 12% success rate. However, his 66% takedown defense keeps most fights standing where he prefers them.
Charlie Campbell (9-2) stands at 6’0” with a 72.5 inch reach. He lands 5.55 significant strikes per minute with superior 54% accuracy while absorbing only 3.73 strikes. Where Campbell really separates himself is his grappling credentials. Averaging 2.95 takedowns per fight with 40% accuracy, he possesses legitimate wrestling threats that could trouble Nolan’s suspect takedown defense. His own takedown defense sits at a solid 71%, suggesting he can keep fights where he wants them. The zero submission average doesn’t tell the full story of his ground skills either.
According to FanDuel, they have installed Tom Nolan as a moderate favorite at -154. Meanwhile, Charlie Campbell sits at +130 as the underdog. These odds reflect the hometown advantage and Nolan’s recent three-fight winning streak.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +184. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-240) reflect that.
Campbell’s more complete skill set and superior defensive metrics suggest he’s better equipped to handle whatever Nolan brings to the table. The height and reach advantages that have served Nolan well in previous fights might not matter as much against Campbell’s pressure heavy style.
Campbell’s wrestling background gives him multiple paths to victory that Nolan simply doesn’t possess. Whether he chooses to keep the fight standing and outbox Nolan or take him down and grind out a decision, Campbell holds more cards in this matchup.
If we bet on the fight, we are betting against the odds and going with Charlie Campbell to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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