UFC 325’s early prelims feature an intriguing lightweight clash between Kim Sang-wook and Dom Mar Fan. This stylistic battle pits the Korean volume striker against the Australian grappling specialist in what promises to be a compelling contrast of approaches. The bout takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Kim brings high-output striking and submission threats as he looks to continue his UFC success. Mar Fan enters with home-country advantage and elite wrestling credentials. Mar Fan opens as a -150 favorite, with Kim at +125 as the underdog. This fight could determine which fighter earns a spot on future main cards.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Kim vs Mar Fan, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena
Weight class: UFC Lightweight bout
Fight length: 3-round early prelim bout
Date & time: Saturday, January 31, 2026 – Early prelims 5:30 p.m. ET, walk time ~06:30 p.m. ET
Odds updated: January 29, 2026 – 8:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Kim vs Mar Fan.
Tale Of The Tape
Kim Sang-wook
Dom Mar Fan
Record
13-3
8-2
Age
31
24
Height
6’0″
5’11”
Reach
71″
75″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.35
2.27
Striking Accuracy
57%
54%
Takedowns
2.10
2.50
Takedown Defense
71%
20%
Submission Avg.
1.7
0.0
Kim holds massive advantages in striking volume, striking accuracy, takedown defense, and submission attempts. Mar Fan counters with superior takedown offense, elite takedown accuracy and 4 inch reach advantage. The orthodox vs orthodox matchup creates symmetrical striking, but the grappling exchanges will determine the winner.
Fighter Breakdown – Kim Sang-wook Analysis
Kim comes in with a 13-3 record and brings exciting volume striking to the lightweight division. The 31 year old Korean fighter nicknamed “Frogman” is a well-rounded threat with dangerous submissions and high output offense.
Strengths: Elite striking volume overwhelms opponents. Superior striking accuracy with efficient shot selection. Dangerous submission game with 1.7 attempts per fight. Strong takedown defense (71%) against grapplers. Decent wrestling offense (2.10 attempts). Well-rounded skillset with no major holes. Experience with 16 total fights. 1 inch height advantage.
Weaknesses: Poor striking defense leaves openings for counters. Absorbs significant damage (5.49 per minute). Low takedown accuracy (29%) makes wrestling offense inconsistent. Youth disadvantage against hungry 24-year-old prospect.
Betting Angles: Kim’s +125 moneyline offers value if his striking volume overwhelms Mar Fan early. Kim by Decision (+270 ) provides value if his 71% takedown defense holds. Kim by Submission (+600) represents longshot path with his 1.7 attempts per fight.
Mar Fan brings an 8-2 record with elite wrestling credentials and grappling dominance. The 24 year old Australian is a rising prospect with home-country advantage and suffocating wrestling.
Strengths: Elite takedown accuracy with highly efficient wrestling. Superior takedown volume controls where fight takes place. Young at 24 years old. 4 inch reach advantage creates range control. Limited experience (10 fights) means untested ceiling. Solid striking accuracy.
Weaknesses: Terrible takedown defense (20%) means gets taken down easily. Lower striking volume creates minimal offensive threat standing. No submission threat whatsoever (0.0 attempts). Poor striking defense (34%) leaves chin exposed. Limited experience against elite competition. Faces high-volume striker who lands 5.35 per minute.
Betting Angles: Mar Fan’s -150 moneyline offers minimal value despite home advantage. Mar Fan by Decision (+190) is our best bet given his wrestling control without finishing ability.
Mar Fan’s elite 62% takedown accuracy against Kim’s 71% takedown defense creates competitive grappling exchanges. Once on top, Mar Fan can neutralize Kim’s dangerous submission game and grind out control time without finishing. Kim’s durability and toughness prevent the stoppage despite absorbing 5.49 strikes per minute. At +190 (implied 34.5%), we project this outcome closer to 45%, offering exceptional value.
Both fighters show contrasting but complementary paths to a decision. Kim’s high volume rarely produces knockouts, while Mar Fan has zero submission attempts in his career. The grappling exchanges will be competitive and neither fighter has explosive finishing ability. At -140 (implied 58.3%), we project this goes three rounds around 65% of the time.
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Small stake only. Kim’s 1.7 submission attempts per fight against Mar Fan’s limited ground experience creates danger in scrambles. If Kim’s 71% takedown defense holds early but falters late, the grappling exchanges could favor the more submission-savvy Korean.
Mar Fan has zero submission attempts himself. If Kim survives the wrestling assault and finds himself in advantageous positions, his submission skills become live threats. At +600 (implied 14.3%), this offers excellent payout for a specific but plausible scenario. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Dom Mar Fan by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Mar Fan to secure a unanimous decision victory in a competitive hometown performance. The Australian’s elite wrestling credentials and home-country advantage should prove decisive despite Kim’s volume striking and submission threats.
We see Mar Fan winning rounds 1 and 3 using his superior 62% accuracy to secure key wrestling moments. Kim’s 71% takedown defense keeps the fight competitive, allowing him to steal round 2 with sustained striking volume and dangerous submission attempts. As the fight progresses, Mar Fan’s youth and home crowd support should carry him through tight exchanges.
How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card
Beyond this lightweight grappling battle, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Diego Lopes showed improved striking against Jean Silva with spinning elbow knockout. His evolution makes him dangerous, but nine months may not be enough time to close the gap against Alexander Volkanovski .
Kim’s 1.7 submission attempts per fight keep upset paths open despite Mar Fan’s wrestling dominance. Never count out grapplers with finishing skills.
Tai Tuivasa’s streak can’t be ignored. Five straight knockout losses with deteriorating defense makes him extremely vulnerable. Don’t bet on nostalgia or home-country advantage against superior opponent.
UFC 325 Fight Card
Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds
Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
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