Jaqueline Amorim spent most of her athletic career dominating on the mats before transitioning to MMA. After a stumbling UFC debut loss to Sam Hughes, she’s rattled off four straight wins with all finishes. Now she faces Mizuki at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi this Saturday. The Japanese veteran has been inactive since September 2023 when she won a decision against Hannah Goldy. That long layoff raises questions about what version shows up. This Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki matchup features elite grappling against durable striking, with ring rust potentially deciding the outcome.
Amorim stands 5’3″ with a 68 inch reach and brings a 10-1 record built on submission dominance. She lands just 2.68 significant strikes per minute but at excellent 53% accuracy while absorbing only 1.43. Her striking defense sits at 64%, showing smart defensive positioning. Her grappling dominates with 2.22 takedowns per fight and an absurd 4.8 submission attempts average.
Mizuki matches her height at 5’3″ with a 65 inch reach and owns a 15-6 record. She throws significantly more volume at 4.56 strikes per minute at 50% accuracy but absorbs heavy damage at 5.62 per minute with just 48% defense. Her 85% takedown defense looks strong, but she attempts just 0.33 takedowns herself with 14% accuracy.
This fight comes down to whether Mizuki’s striking volume and takedown defense can overcome Amorim’s elite BJJ. Mizuki has never been stopped in her career, showing incredible durability through wars with top competition. However, she’s been inactive for over two years, and that layoff raises serious questions about timing, conditioning, and sharpness. Amorim is hitting her MMA prime at 30 years old after spending decades perfecting her grappling craft.
Mizuki’s best chance involves using her striking volume to keep distance and avoid the clinch completely. Her 4.56 strikes per minute create consistent offensive pressure, but she absorbs 5.62 in return. Amorim can exploit her during exchanges. Those moments of vulnerability are when grapplers shoot underneath and secure takedowns. Mizuki’s takedown defense looks impressive on paper, but it hasn’t been tested against someone with Amorim’s BJJ pedigree and wrestling entries.
If we bet on this fight, we’re going with Jaqueline Amorim to win via submission.
Jaqueline Amorim enters as a heavy favorite at -405 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Mizuki is the +320 underdog. The odds reflect confidence in Amorim’s submission dominance and Mizuki’s long layoff making the Brazilian dangerous.
The odds for the fight going the distance stand at +132. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-168) reflect that expectation.
Here are some of the best bets for Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki fight at UFC 321:
Excellent value on Amorim finishing her signature submission early. Her 4.8 attempts per fight against ring-rusty opposition sets up early finishes.
Fair bet considering Amorim’s four-fight finishing streak. Mizuki’s never been stopped, but she’s never faced grappling this elite and that too after two years off.
Best overall value for the most probable outcome. Her BJJ pedigree against Mizuki’s striking-focused game creates massive grappling mismatches.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Rich Storry – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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