Serie A Matchday 23 runs from January 30 to February 3, 2026, with 10 fixtures that carry implications at both ends of the table. Napoli will host Fiorentina in a matchup shaped by contrasting styles. It will also be a battle for European qualification and a fight to stay out of relegation.
Inter Milan will travel to Cremona during a congested run where rotation and efficiency in front of goal become decisive. Bologna will welcome AC Milan in a tightly priced game that could swing the race for Champions League places. With form lines converging, injuries testing squad depth, and tactical matchups, this slate offers interesting betting angles.
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For more analysis across Italy and Europe, visit our main soccer predictions and Serie A betting tips hub, but for now, scroll on for today’s best bets.
Our Serie A Best Picks of Matchday 23
Match
Market & Pick
Odds & Book
Napoli vs Fiorentina
Total Goals: Over 1.5
-300 via Fanduel
Cremonese vs Inter Milan
Lautaro Martinez to Score Anytime
+105 via BetMGM
Bologna vs AC Milan
AC Milan to Win
+110 via FanDuel
Odds from FanDuel and BetMGM, accurate as of Friday afternoon ET. Serie A lines can move quickly on matchday, so always check the latest prices before betting.
Best Bet #1 – Napoli vs Fiorentina: Total Goals Over 1.5
Napoli will face Fiorentina at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona will have implications on both sides of the table. Napoli have averaged just over 1.4 total goals in all competitive matches across league and Europe, which is not impressive going by their standards. Their xG has been near 1.5 per match.
Meanwhile, they’re conceding around 1.1 xGA. It’s evident that even though their offensive intent has been good, they’ve been prone to occasional defensive exposure. At home, Napoli have scored in nine of their last ten Serie A fixtures and they’ve failed to reach multiple goals only twice.
Fiorentina are approaching with a more balanced but still proactive profile. They have averaged approximately 1.09 goals scored to 1.55 conceded so far this season. Their xG figure is close to 1.42 per game. Away from home, Fiorentina’s defensive line tends to sit higher. This has resulted in matches opening up against top-six opposition.
Seven of their last eight away league games have cleared the 1.5 total goals line. Eight of the last nine Serie A meetings between Napoli and Fiorentina have produced at least two goals, regardless of venue. Given both teams’ consistent chance creation and recent finishing trends, the over 1.5 seems probable.
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Best Bet #2 – Cremonese vs Inter Milan: Lautaro Martinez to Score Anytime
Inter Milan will travel to face Cremonese with a cushion of a five point-lead at the top of the table. Lautaro Martinez remains their attacking reference point along with Marcus Thuram. The Argentine is leading the team in league goals with a tally 12 goals entering into Matchday 23.
Across his appearances in all competitions, Martinez is averaging 0.5 goals per game so far. He has also generated a high 10.84 xG, so both his volume and shot quality is evident. His movement between center-backs and ability to finish first-time chances make him particularly effective against deep-defending sides.
Cremonese’s defensive numbers suggest vulnerability. They have conceded a little over 1.3 goals per match with an xGA going over 1.8 in Serie A. Even at home, they’ve allowed a high number of touches in their own penalty area. So, strikers easily get the scoring opportunities in these situations. Against top-four opposition, Cremonese have conceded multiple goals.
Inter’s fixture congestion is notable, but Simone Inzaghi has consistently prioritized Martinez in league matches, even when rotation occurs elsewhere. With Inter averaging over 2.0 xG per match in their Serie A games this season, backing their primary finisher to score anytime presents probable possibilities.
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Best Bet #3 – Bologna vs AC Milan: AC Milan to Win
Sunday’s encounter at the Renato Dall’Ara pits Bologna’s structured, compact approach against an AC Milan side chasing consistency in the top-four race. Bologna’s form at home in Serie A games has been quite inconsistent. They’ve won four, lost four, and drawn two games so far in the league. Their recent performances are also showing declining attacking output.
They’re averaging 1.45 goals per game across all competitions with an xG figure of 1.42 per game. Against elite opposition, Bologna have often struggled to progress the ball through midfield under sustained pressing. AC Milan’s away form has improved notably since early season. They have scored 18 goals and conceded 11. Their xG output has been over 1.5 per game so far.
Their ability to create chances from wide overloads and late box entries has translated well on the road. The Rossonerri’s pressing intensity has also reduced opponents’ shot quality. They’re holding an overall xGA of 1.28 so far. Milan have also won four of the last six Serie A meetings with Bologna. Hence, considering Milan’s superior attacking depth, recent form trajectory, and head-to-head edge the market seems possible.
Serie A Best Bets for Matchday 23 Recap – January 30-February 3, 2026
Best Bet #1: Napoli vs Fiorentina – Total Goals Over 1.5 (-300 at FanDuel)
Best Bet #2: Cremonese vs Inter Milan – Lautaro Martinez to Score Anytime (+105 at BetMGM)
Best Bet #3: Bologna vs AC Milan – AC Milan to Win (+110 at FanDuel)
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