The Premier League Matchday 28 slate begins on February 27, 2026, with fixtures across the country carrying major implications for the title race and European qualification battle. The fight in to survive and stay in the top league also remains nigh.
Arsenal will host Chelsea in a high-tempo derby at the Emirates and Manchester United will welcome Crystal Palace amid scrutiny over home consistency. Meanwhile, Manchester City will travel to Elland Road to face Leeds United in a pivotal clash to stay in the title race.
For more analysis across England and Europe, visit our main soccer predictions and Premier League betting tips hub, but for now, scroll on for today’s best bets.
Our Premier League Best Picks of Matchday 28
Match
Market & Pick
Odds & Book
Arsenal vs Chelsea
BTTS: Yes
-132 via Fanduel
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace
Man United to Win
-175 via BetMGM
Leeds United vs Manchester City
Erling Haaland to Score or Assist
-180 via FanDuel
Odds from FanDuel and BetMGM, accurate as of Friday afternoon ET. Premier League lines can move quickly on matchday, so always check the latest prices before betting.
Best Bet #1 – Arsenal vs Chelsea: Erling Haaland to Score or Assist
Friday’s London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium profiles as one of the most statistically aligned BTTS fixtures of the round. Arsenal have scored 21 goals in the last 10 league matches. But they have also conceded 12. They’re averaging an output hovering around 1.9 xG per game.
However, their defensive form shows vulnerability in counterattacks. They’re conceding over 1.2 xGA per match in that same span. Chelsea are coming into the game with similarly aggressive shot-generation numbers. Over their previous 10 outings, they have averaged close to 15 shots per match. They’ve also generated roughly 1.7 xG, while conceding in eight of those fixtures.
Away from Stamford Bridge, they have struggled to control central zones against elite pressing sides. Yet, they’re still carrying a pace-driven threat in wide channels. Recent head-to-head meetings have trended toward open exchanges, particularly when Arsenal sustain high possession. Both teams are ranking inside the top six for progressive carries into the final third. So, the BTTS pick makes sense.
21+. AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA/MD/MA/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/ VA/WV/WY only. Offer not available in DC/MS/NV/NY/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.
Best Bet #2 – Manchester United vs Crystal Palace: Man United to Win
Manchester United will welcome Crystal Palace at Old Trafford. The match carries clear home-favorite logic and from performance splits. Across their last 10 Premier League games, Man United have registered seven wins. They’re posting approximately 1.8 xG per match while conceding under 1.1 xGA. At Old Trafford specifically, they have won five of their last six league fixtures.
They’re limiting opponents to fewer than four shots on target per match on average. Crystal Palace’s away profile paints a contrasting picture. Over their last 10 games on the road, Palace have managed just two wins and they conceded in eight of them. Their xGA on the road has consistently exceeded 1.5 per match.
Man United’s attacking width and overlapping full-backs should directly test Palace’s defensive spacing. Head-to-head records further support the pricing. Man United have won four of the last five meetings at Old Trafford in league competition. Palace’s recent form shows attacking flashes but limited consistency against top-half opposition. So, even if they see a fight, Man United should sail through.
New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.
Best Bet #3 – Leeds United vs Manchester City: BTTS: Yes
Leeds United’s meeting with Manchester City at Elland Road will be an important one for the travellers. Man City are averaging over 2.3 xG per match across their last 10 league games. And Erling Haaland accounts for a significant share of shots inside the penalty area.
Haaland’s recent production supports this market. Over his last 10 league games, he has recorded eight goals and three assists. He is also generating roughly 0.9 xG per 90 minutes. Against mid-table pressing sides, his off-ball movement between center-backs has consistently exploited high defensive lines.
Meanwhile, Leeds are conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per game in recent matches. Head-to-head context also favors involvement. In their last league games against Leeds, Man City have created multiple big chances. Considering these factors and his recent output, the pick makes sense.
Premier League Best Bets for Matchday 28 Recap – February 27-March 2, 2026
Best Bet #1: Arsenal vs Chelsea – BTTS: Yes (-132 via FanDuel)
Best Bet #2: Manchester United vs Crystal Palace – Manchester United to Win (-175 via BetMGM)
Best Bet #3: Leeds United vs Manchester City – Erling Haaland to Score or Assist (-180 via FanDuel)
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
soccer 
