One of the most anticipated playoff games of NFL Wild Card weekend is the AFC clash between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers. In this Patriots vs Chargers matchup, the 3-seed AFC East champions New England team, take on the 6-seed Chargers who is wild card team from the AFC West.
New England had a strong regular season, finishing 13-4 with a balanced attack led by second-year QB Drake Maye and one of the league’s top defenses. Meanwhile, Los Angeles went 11-6 during the regular season, powered by an explosive passing game and a resilient defense that improved late in the year.
Both teams enter the postseason with momentum and plenty of playoff experience, making this game a must-watch.
Best Bet for New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Best Bet:
Our best bet for the Patriots vs Chargers is Justin Herbert under 1.5 passing TDs (-140). (Sourced from BetMGM).
Our best bet for the Patriots vs Chargers game comes in the form of Justin Herbert under 1.5 passing touchdowns. We believe this is a reasonable pick given that the Patriots have some of the best passing defenses in the NFL, sitting at 10th in the league, allowing only 198.3 yards on 24 passing TD allowed for the season.
Herbert totaled 26 TD passes for the season and his recent performances against strong defenses like the Texans, Eagles, or the Jaguars, indicate that him staying under 1.5 TDs is likely, given that he’s attempted less volume of passes and has stayed under 1.5 TDs in these games. Also, he only had 8 games above 1.5 TDs this season, and most of those came against teams that are not in the playoffs nor were they top-10 defensive team, making this a great pick.
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Same-Game Parlay Picks for Patriots vs Chargers
This is our pick for a 3-leg same game parlay for the Patriots vs Chargers Wild Card game (Sourced from BetMGM).
Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions is a great bet because the veteran WR posted 85 catches on 102 targets in the 2025 regular season, averaging exactly 5.0 receptions per game for the Patriots. In high stakes playoff matchup, Diggs has historically thrived, amassing 69 postseason receptions across 14 games. Facing the Chargers in the wild card round, expect heavy target volume from Drake Maye as New England leans on its top playmaker.
Justin Herbert over 19.5 pass completions:
Justin Herbert over 19.5 pass completions is a great bet because the Chargers QB completed 340 of 512 passes in the 2025 regular season across 16 games, averaging 21.25 completions per game with a sloid 66.4% completion rate. In high-volume situations and playoff intensity, Herbert thrives under pressure, often exceeding 20 completions when the game demands sustained drives against a tough Patriots defense. Expect Jim Harbaugh to lean on his elite arm for steady completions to keep pace in this AFC clash.
Ladd McConkey over 3.5 receptions made:
Ladd McConkey over 3.5 receptions is also a reasonable bet because the second-year Chargers WR caught 66 passes on 106 targets in the 2025 regular season across 16 games., averaging 4.1 receptions per game. As Justin Herbert’s reliable slot target and team leader in receiving yards, McConkey sees consistent volume in high-stakes games, including a historic 9-catch, 197-yards playoff outburst as a rookie last season, setting an NFL record for most receiving yards in a playoff game for a rookie. Expect heavy involvement for McConkey against the Patriots’ secondary in this AFC wild card clash.
Patriots vs Chargers Game Predictions by Market
Moneyline Prediction
Looking at the moneyline for this game, the Patriots are the slight favorites (-200) to win against the underdog Chargers (+165). These two teams are squaring off for the first time this season, and in their last meeting on December 28, 2024, the Chargers wrecked havoc on the Pats, blowing them out 40-7 in the game. However, the Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL currently and it could be a different story this time around. With playoff experience on Justin Herbert’s side, we pick the Chargers to win the game.
Spread Prediction
The Patriots are the slight favorites with a -3.5 spread over the Chargers. The Chargers have relatively performed well and are 10-6 against the spread as underdogs on the road between 2021 to 2026. Looking at their ATS record and Herbert’s playoff experience compared to Maye who is only in his second season and has no playoff experience, we pick the Chargers to win the game.
Over/Under (Total) Prediction
The over/under for the total points in the Patriots vs Chargers game is set at 45.5. Both teams have elite defenses as they are in the top-10 for almost every single defensive category. The only real concern in on the Patriots side with their red-zone defense which ranks dead last in the NFL, unable to protect teams from scoring once they are in the red-zone. Expect a low scoring contest, which is why we are sticking to the under 45.5 in this AFC Wild Card clash.
Patriots vs Chargers Odds
Here, we take a look at the latest Patriots vs Chargers odds from a couple of our favorite sportsbooks, namely, FanDuel and BetMGM.
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Trends to Know for Patriots vs Chargers
The Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS as home favorites
New England is 4-4-1 ATS at home
Chargers are 3-1 ATS as underdogs
Chargers are 3-5 on the road
Latest Injuries for Patriots vs Chargers
The Patriots have ruled out DL Khyiris Tonga with a foot injury, and have CB Alex Austin – Wrist (LP), WR Kayshon Boutte – Hamstring (LP), LB Harold Landry – Knee (LP), and T Thayer Munford Jr. – Knee (DNP), all listed as questionable for the game.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have listed WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring) and S Kendall Williamson (ankle) out for the game. They have also listed T Austin Deculus (oblique), OLB Bud Dupree (hamstring), TE Tucker Fisk (ankle), RB Omarion Hampton (ankle), DB Elijah Molden (hamstring) and LB Del’Shawn Phillips (hamstring) as questionable for the game.
The weather for Sunday night’s wild-card playoff game between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers is expected to be cold and cloudy at kickoff, with temperatures around 26 degrees and west winds at 11 mph. There is a 24 percent chance of precipitation and the chilly, potentially wet conditions could emphasize the run game and ball security for both teams.
What time is the Patriots vs Chargers Wild Card Game?
The Wild Card game between the Patriots and the Chargers is slated for an evening primetime showdown on Sunday with kickoff at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Where is the Patriots vs Chargers game being played?
The Patriots take on the Chargers for the final game of Sunday’s wild card action, which will played at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts, home of the Patriots.
How can I watch the Patriots vs Chargers?
The AFC wild card game between the Patriots and the Chargers will be broadcasted live on NBC. Fans can also access the game through live-streaming, using many platforms such as; YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket), NFL+, Sling TV, Peacock, Hulu + Live TV, or Universo.
(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
I cover the National Football League and things cannot get better than that. I always dreamed to play football or basketball professionally since I’m built like a Running Back. But now that I can’t, since I’m technically in the “Unc” age, I thought why not pick a career in sports industry? So here I am, doing what I love, and hoping that the Commanders win the Super Bowl. I give love to players when it’s due, but can be critical about their performances at the same time. Enough about me, now let my articles do all the talking.
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