Thanksgiving is here, and in the NFL, that means one thing: the playoff picture is finally coming into focus. With six weeks left in the regular season, the finish line is in sight. Contenders are solidifying their cases, while pretenders are bracing for an early exit.
This weekend, three teams can officially punch their tickets to January football, while three others may find their playoff dreams extinguished.
So, who gets to dream of playoff glory, and who is stuck scouting for next season? Let’s break down the playoff-clinching and elimination scenarios for Week 13.
NFL standings entering Week 13
Here’s how the league looks heading into this crucial week:
AFC playoff picture right now
- Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 1st AFC West)
- Buffalo Bills (9-2, 1st AFC East)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 1st AFC North)
- Houston Texans (7-5, 1st AFC South)
NFC playoff picture right now
- Detroit Lions (10-1, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-2, 1st NFC East)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-5, 1st NFC West)
- Atlanta Falcons (6-5, 1st NFC South)
2024 NFL Playoff Scenarios
AFC
How the Buffalo Bills can clinch the AFC East
- Buffalo Bills win + Miami Dolphins loss
The first of the NFL playoff scenarios. The Bills host the battered San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, while the Dolphins (5-6) take on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night.
Buffalo has claimed the AFC East title for the past four seasons, but their last conference championship dates back to 1993.
How the Kansas City Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth
- Chiefs win + Dolphins loss or tie OR
- Chiefs win + Broncos loss OR
- Chiefs win + Chargers loss + Broncos tie OR
- Chiefs tie + Dolphins loss
The 10-1 Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on Black Friday, while the 7-5 Broncos face the struggling Cleveland Browns on Monday night. Meanwhile, the Chargers aim to rebound from a tough loss to the Ravens as they face the Atlanta Falcons.
The Chiefs have dominated the AFC with four titles in five years and are chasing a historic Super Bowl three-peat.
NFC
How the Detroit Lions can clinch a playoff berth
- Lions win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss or tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss or tie + Falcons loss
- Lions win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers tie + Falcons loss or tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss or tie + Cardinals loss + Seahawks loss + Commanders loss + Falcons tie
- Lions win + 49ers loss + Cardinals tie + Seahawks loss or tie + Commanders loss + Buccaneers loss
NFL playoff elimination scenarios for Week 13
How the New York Giants can be eliminated
With Daniel Jones out and Tommy DeVito under center, the Giants are already embracing the rebuild. They can be officially eliminated this week, even without losing to the Cowboys:
- Giants loss vs. Cowboys OR
- Giants tie vs. Cowboys AND Commanders win/tie OR
- Packers win/tie AND Commanders win
Tied with the Jaguars and Raiders for the league’s worst record, the Giants are trending toward a top draft pick, though Jacksonville holds the current tiebreaker for the No. 1 spot.
How the Las Vegas Raiders can be eliminated
The Raiders’ path to elimination is the simplest of all:
- Raiders loss vs. Chiefs OR
- Raiders tie vs. Chiefs AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie
Head coach Antonio Pierce hasn’t found his stride, and the Raiders now need to focus on building for the future, starting with finding their next franchise quarterback.
How the Jacksonville Jaguars can be eliminated
Another NFL playoff scenario, where a loss to the Texans on Sunday would officially knock the Jaguars out of the AFC South race and possibly end their playoff chances entirely:
- Jaguars loss vs. Texans AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie OR
- Jaguars tie vs. Texans AND Chargers win AND Broncos win
Trevor Lawrence remains the franchise cornerstone, but rebuilding the team’s infrastructure—including changes at head coach and GM—will be key for Jacksonville.
How the New England Patriots can be eliminated
At 3-9, the Patriots are already out of the divisional race. Their Wild Card hopes end with these scenarios:
- Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Broncos win/tie OR
- Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Texans win/tie OR
- Patriots loss vs. Colts AND Chargers win/tie AND Dolphins win
This season wasn’t about contention for New England—it was about laying the groundwork for the future. While Jerod Mayo’s coaching remains under evaluation, first-round pick Drake Maye shows promise as the quarterback to lead them back into playoff relevance.
How and where to watch Week 13 NFL games
You can catch all the Week 13 action through various platforms and broadcasts. Here’s how to tune in:
- TV Broadcasts:
- CBS: Selected AFC games
- FOX: Selected NFC games
- NBC: Sunday Night Football
- ESPN: Monday Night Football
- Streaming Services:
- NFL+: Watch live local and primetime games on mobile devices.
- Paramount+: Stream CBS games.
- Peacock: Sunday Night Football on NBC.
- ESPN App: Monday Night Football.
- YouTube TV: Includes access to Sunday Ticket (for out-of-market games).
- Special Games:
- Thanksgiving Matchups: Broadcast on CBS, FOX, and NBC.
- Black Friday Game: Available exclusively on Amazon Prime Video.
- Radio Coverage:
- Westwood One: National coverage for primetime games.
- SiriusXM: In-depth commentary and team-specific broadcasts.
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