The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2025-26 season with an 8-9 record, placing third in the NFC South and extending their playoff drought to seven years. They showed early promise with scattered wins but endured a brutal mid-season five-game losing streak that dropped them to 3-7, largely due to inconsistent play and offensive struggles.
Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending partially torn ACL in Week 11 (after starting the first nine games at 3-6) derailed any momentum, forcing Kirk Cousins to take over. The lone bright spot was Bijan Robinson’s historic campaign: 1,478 rushing yards on 5.2 per carry, 820 receiving yards, and league-leading 2,298 all-purpose yards, proving he remains one of the NFL’s elite playmakers despite the team’s mediocrity.
Atlanta Falcons Total Wins Over/Under Odds for 2026-27 Regular Season
The Falcons finished their season with a 8-9 record, finishing third in their division, the NFC South, and their struggles have continued due to inconsistency and injuries. Last season, as mentioned earlier, their QB Penix missed a bunch of games due to his partially torn ACL on his left knee, which ultimately ended any hopes of making the playoffs. Even though they finished third, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Panthers were all tied with the same record of 8-9, but they lost their positioning as the top seed due to tie breaker.
The NFC South as a whole, struggled to win games last season, with no definitive powerhouses. Draftkingslists the Falcons’ 2026 win total at under 7.5 games as the favored bet in the upcoming NFL Season, reflecting the team to continue losing at NFC South.
Listed below is the table that shows the Over/Under for the Falcons’ total wins in the upcoming regular season.
Atlanta Falcons 2026-27 Regular Season Wins
Odds
Over 7.5
+110
Under 7.5
-130
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After a disappointing 8-9 finish in 2025-26 that left them third in the NFC South and extended their playoff drought to seven years, the Atlanta Falcons made major changes this offseason. They fired head coach Raheem Morris and hired two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski, while bringing in Ian Cunningham as the new general manager. Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending ACL injury in Week 11 after starting the first nine games (3-6 record) exposed the team’s fragility at quarterback and stalled any late momentum.
The offense still needs better pass protection and playmaking consistency to complement Bijan Robinson’s historic 2025 campaign, while the defense requires upgrades in the pass rush and secondary to become more reliable. With a favorable 28th-easiest schedule (.465), the roster has building blocks, but depth remains a concern on both sides of the ball.
Falcons fans should feel measured excitement heading into 2026-27. The fresh coaching staff and front office bring new schemes and stability, but long-term success will ultimately depend on whether Penix can stay healthy after his early injury history. If he does, Atlanta could take a meaningful step forward; if not, another middling season remains likely.
Let us take a look at the Falcons opponents for the 2026-27 season;
Carolina Panthers (*2)
New Orleans Saints (*2)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (*2)
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Commanders
The Falcons have one of the most easiest schedules in the league and will only play 5 teams that made the playoffs in the 2025-26 season. That said, they will still play teams like the Lions, Buccaneers (twice), Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, who could all emerge as playoff contenders with their elite QB play and their talented roster.
That said, the Falcons are not yet a playoff threat and are still trying to end their playoff drought. While they have a favorable schedule, it will all come down to their consistency and prevention of injuries, which derailed their season in 2025-26.
Early Prediction: Falcons finish the 2026-27 season with a 10-7 record.
Atlanta Falcons Major Injuries and Concerns Going Into 2026-27 NFL Season
Injuries
Injuries were a moderate concern for the Atlanta Falcons in the 2025-26 season. Per RotoWire’s analysis of the most injured NFL teams, the Falcons ranked 17th with 19 players injured, leading to 192 man-games missed, with an average of 10.11 per player. This level of attrition contributed to roster instability, particularly at key positions like quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.’s season-ending ACL) and others, factoring into their inconsistent 8-9 performance and playoff miss.
Injuries remain a potential concern heading into 2026-27. While no widespread long-term issues are reported beyond Penix’s ongoing ACL recovery (with uncertainty on his readiness), the Falcons’ history of health problems across multiple seasons suggests depth and load management must improve. By training camp, most players should be available, but QB fragility and any lingering effects could still impact their outlook in a favorable schedule.
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Roster Concerns
The Falcons’ biggest roster concerns center on QB stability and offensive depth. Michael Penix Jr.’s uncertain ACL recovery timeline forces the front office to secure a capable, cost-effective backup or quarterback. Offensively, the unit remains far too reliant on Bijan Robinson, with insufficient weapons at wide receiver and tight end. Adding a legitimate No. 2 receiver, an additional pass-catching tight end, and a reliable backup running back is urgent to prevent another limited, predictable offense.
Defensively, the Falcons lack a clear No.2 cornerback, nose tackle, and sufficient rotational depth along the defensive line and outside linebacker, while inside linebacker and safety depth is also thin. Across the entire roster, poor depth is the most obvious issue, leaving the team vulnerable when injuries hit. Their new GM Ian Cunningham must focus on building a more balanced and deeper roster to support Stefanski and his new schemes he’ll bring to Atlanta.
Atlanta Falcons NFL 2026-27 Draft Picks and How They Can Have an Impact on the Total Over/Under Wins Odds
The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2026 season with just five draft picks- no first rounder – and an over/under win total at 7.5. New GM Ian Cunningham, emphasizing his love for accumulating picks, aims to trade into more selections during the Combine and draft weekend, drawing from his Chicago Bears experience where the turned six picks into 11.
Additional Day 2 and Day 3 selections would allow the Falcons to target immediate depth at wide receiver, offensive line, cornerback, and defensive line, addressing key roster holes while building around Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and the newly franchise tagged Kyle Pitts. More picks increase the odds of impactful contributors, which could potentially push the team toward 9+ wins and favoring the over on their total in a quite favorable NFC South division.
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I cover the National Football League and things cannot get better than that. I always dreamed to play football or basketball professionally since I’m built like a Running Back. But now that I can’t, since I’m technically in the “Unc” age, I thought why not pick a career in sports industry? So here I am, doing what I love, and hoping that the Commanders win the Super Bowl. I give love to players when it’s due, but can be critical about their performances at the same time. Enough about me, now let my articles do all the talking.
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