New York City
Toronto
>Major League Soccer · Regular SeasonNew York City vs Toronto: Prediction and Odds, Major League Soccer, 31/07/2026
New York City FC welcome Toronto to Yankee Stadium on July 31 for an MLS regular season clash with contrasting agendas. The hosts, priced at 1.67, sit fifth in the Eastern Conference and carry momentum from two post-break victories. Toronto arrive at the end of a grueling road trip, winless in eleven league matches and desperate to stop the bleeding.
Projected final score: 2-1
NYCFC's perfect 4-0 H2H record over Toronto this season, including a 3-1 win on July 3rd, underlines a clear dominance that is hard to ignore. The hosts sit 5th in the East with momentum from back-to-back post-break wins, while Toronto's 11-game winless streak makes 1.67 a compelling value proposition for bettors.
Toronto's defensive average of 1.82 goals conceded per game suggests they will ship at least one here, but NYCFC's own injury concerns, eight players sidelined including Moralez and Parks, limit the ceiling on their attacking output. A tight 2-1 scoreline reflects 1.67 conditions, with Toronto capable of a consolation but unlikely to threaten a result.
Recommended Bets for New York City vs Toronto
New York City vs Toronto, Odds Comparison
Match Analysis
New York City FC enter as clear favorites at 1.67, backed by WWLDW form, 5th place in the Eastern Conference with 25 points, and a perfect four-from-four record against Toronto this season alone.
- 4-0 H2H record over Toronto in 2025, including a 3-1 win on July 3 and a 1-0 away win on April 26.
- 2W in 2 matches since the World Cup break, defeating Columbus Crew 2-1 and Chicago Fire 3-1.
- Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads the attack with 12 goals this season and is confirmed in the starting XI.
- New Designated Player Bénie Traoré adds a natural striker presence, forming a potent attacking axis alongside Fernández Mercau.
Toronto arrive at Yankee Stadium at 4.60, closing out a grueling four-match road trip with Richard Chukwu and Lazar Stefanovic unavailable and Djordje Mihailovic limited to the bench due to a pelvic injury.
- Toronto are on an 11-game MLS winless run (0W-5D-6L) stretching back to April 4.
- A goals-conceded average of 1.82 per game ranks among the Eastern Conference's worst defensive records.
- Three key players unavailable or doubtful, including Chukwu, Stefanovic, and Gomis, severely depleting Fraser's options.
Key point: With NYCFC's injury-hit defense averaging over a goal conceded, the double chance covering both teams to score merits consideration alongside the home win.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: New York City vs Toronto
New York City
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Toronto
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
New York City vs Toronto: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: New York City vs Toronto
Source : betmgm.comMatch Information
Lineups: New York City vs Toronto
New York City
Starters
- 1 Matt Freese
- 2 Tayvon Gray
- 3 Thiago Martins
- 4 James Sands
- 5 Nico Cavallo
- 6 Jonathan Shore
- 7 Nicolas Fernandez Mercau
- 8 Andrés Perea
- 9 Agustin Ojeda
- 10 Benie Traore
- 11 Malachi Jones
Bench
- Hannes Wolf
- Kevin Pierre
- Máximo Carrizo
- Max Murray
- Tomás Romero
- Seymour Reid
Absent
- Aiden O'Neill (injury)
- Kai Trewin (injury)
- Maxi Moralez (injury)
- Raul Gustavo (injury)
- Kevin O'Toole (injury)
- Mitja Ilenič (injury)
- Alonso Martínez (injury)
- Keaton Parks (injury)
- Drew Baiera (leg injury)
- Arnau Farnós (leg injury)
- Mac Learned (leg injury)
Toronto
Starters
- 1 Luka Gavran
- 2 Zane Monlouis
- 3 Kobe Franklin
- 4 Richie Laryea
- 5 Walker Zimmerman
- 6 Theo Corbeanu
- 7 Jackson Gilman
- 8 Jonathan Osorio
- 9 Dániel Sallói
- 10 Emilio Aristizábal
- 11 Derrick Etienne Jr.
Bench
- Yarbrough
- Malik Henry
- Alonso Coello
- Deandre Kerr
- Jules-Anthony Vilsaint
- Djordje Mihailović
- Adisa De Rosario
- Raheem Edwards
Absent
- Matheus Pereira (injury)
- Henry Wingo (injury)
- José Cifuentes (injury)
- Richard Chukwu (injured)
- Lazar Stefanovic (foot injury)
Medium confidence
A 4-3-3 against a 4-4-2 sets up an interesting midfield battle at Yankee Stadium, with New York City's three-man engine room looking to dominate possession and feed Benie Traore on the wing. Toronto's flat four in midfield will aim to compress space and frustrate NYCFC's build-up.
For the visitors, Jonathan Osorio is the creative fulcrum in a double-pivot structure designed to transition quickly through Theo Corbeanu and Derrick Etienne Jr. Both lineups carry solid confidence from multiple credible sources, making this a well-scouted matchup with few surprises expected in either starting shape.
Final thoughts on the predictions for New York City vs Toronto
NYCFC's perfect head-to-head record against Toronto this season, strong home form, and two wins since the World Cup break make the home victory the clear selection. Toronto's 11-game winless streak and the toll of a four-match road trip only reinforce the case. Back New York City FC to win at 1.67, a price that reflects fair value given the weight of evidence in their favor. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for New York City vs Toronto?
Back NYCFC to win at 1.67. The most decisive factor is Toronto's catastrophic 11-game MLS winless run, which contrasts sharply with New York City's back-to-back post-break victories and a perfect four-from-four head-to-head record against this exact opponent.
What is the highest odd for New York City to win?
The best available price on a New York City victory is 1.67. Bettors seeking safer coverage can explore the double chance combining home win and draw, which effectively insulates against a surprise Toronto point while still backing NYCFC's dominant recent form.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Toronto concede an alarming average of 1.82 goals per game, the worst tier in the Eastern Conference, and NYCFC have scored in every match since the break. Despite NYCFC's injury issues, the attacking output points toward goals; lean toward 1.71 for value here.
When and where is New York City vs Toronto played?
The match kicks off on Friday, July 31, 2025 at 7:30 PM Eastern Time at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York City.
Can Toronto pull off an upset against New York City?
An upset is possible but genuinely difficult. Toronto sit 12th in the East and are winless in 11 straight MLS outings, making 4.60 a long shot. NYCFC's injury crisis is the one real opening, yet the hosts have won every previous meeting and arrive in far superior form.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
With Toronto leaking nearly two goals per game and NYCFC's attack clicking through Fernández Mercau, Both Teams to Score at 1.67 offers solid value. Toronto have shown they can find the net sporadically even during their slump, making a blank for the visitors unlikely.
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