With the postseason approaching, Toronto, Florida, and Tampa Bay fight for home-ice advantage and playoff seeding in a tight Atlantic Division race.
The Atlantic Division playoff race remains highly competitive. The top three teams are separated by a single point, intensifying the battle for division supremacy. The Toronto Maple Leafs currently lead the race with a 44-25-4 record (92 points), but the Florida Panthers (44-25-3, 91 points) and Tampa Bay Lightning (43-25-5, 91 points) are breathing down their necks. These three teams are not just fighting for playoff spots—they are competing for home-ice advantage, a crucial factor in postseason success.
As it stands, the division winner will face a wild-card team, likely the Ottawa Senators, in the first round. Meanwhile, the second- and third-place teams will go head-to-head, with the No. 2 seed securing home-ice advantage. Given how close the race is, every remaining game holds significant weight.
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If the season ends with teams tied in points, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins. Right now, Tampa Bay holds the edge with 37, followed by Toronto with 36 and Florida with 35. The Panthers are the first of the three teams in action next, hosting the Montreal Canadiens. The Leafs continue their road trip against the Anaheim Ducks, while the Lightning face the New York Islanders on Tuesday.
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Looking at the remaining schedules, the Maple Leafs have the toughest path, with their opponents holding a collective win percentage of 51.3%—the 11th hardest schedule in the league. The Panthers have a slightly easier route (49.5%, 21st), while the Lightning have the smoothest road ahead (47.6%, 25th). Florida faces Toronto twice (April 3 and April 8) and Tampa Bay once (April 15), making those matchups pivotal in determining final seeding. The Leafs, meanwhile, will wrap up their regular season against Tampa Bay on April 9.

As for playoff chances, Toronto remains the favorite to secure the division title, with an estimated 55% chance based on current standings and the strength of the schedule. Florida sits at around 30%, while Tampa Bay, despite having an easier schedule, holds a 15% chance due to their current position in tiebreak scenarios. If the Panthers and Lightning win key head-to-head matchups, these odds could shift dramatically in the coming weeks.
With every game carrying high stakes, the Atlantic Division race promises to be one of the most thrilling storylines heading into the playoffs.
Image Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images
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