Italy are just one point away from sealing their place in the 2026 World Cup playoffs as they prepare to face Israel in Udine on Tuesday night. The Azzurri will look to maintain their recent resurgence under Gennaro Gattuso after a thrilling 5-4 win in the reverse fixture last month.
That dramatic encounter in Tel Aviv saw Sandro Tonali grab a stoppage-time winner in a chaotic nine-goal clash. With form improving and confidence rising, Italy will be eager to avoid any late drama this time. Especially as they aim to secure qualification comfortably on home soil.
| Bets | Status | Moneyline |
| Total Goals | Under 3.5 | -105 |
| Total Shots | Over 26.5 | -120 |
| Total Shots on Target | Over 10.5 | +140 |
| Total Corners | Under 8.5 | +120 |
| Total Cards | Under 3.5 | -163 |
| Italy Goalkeeper Total Saves | Over 2.5 | +195 |
| Israel Goalkeeper Total Saves | Over 4.5 | +210 |
The home side come into this match on a four-game winning streak in the qualifiers. They’ve recently beaten Estonia by a 3-1 margin. Despite Mateo Retegui missing a penalty and Gianluigi Donnarumma’s costly mistake in Tallinn, Gattuso’s side showed attacking intent through Francesco Pio Esposito’s first senior goal. However, Moise Kean is sidelined with an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, Alessandro Bastoni is suspended. Gianluca Mancini is likely to replace him in defence. Injuries to Gianluca Scamacca, Matteo Politano, and Mattia Zaccagni mean Giacomo Raspadori and Riccardo Orsolini could continue up front. Leonardo Spinazzola and Andrea Cambiaso are also in contention for starting roles.
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Israel’s qualification hopes are hanging by a thread after a heavy 5-1 defeat to Norway. Ran Ben Shimon’s side, now three points behind Italy with an extra game played, must win to stay alive in the playoff race. The absence of Dor Peretz is a major setback.
He scored twice in the previous meeting with Italy, Dan Biton may drop out after a poor showing, with Tai Baribo or Dor Turgeman expected to lead the attack. Manor Solomon and Oscar Gloukh will provide creativity on the wings as Israel look to upset the odds in Udine.
It is expected to be a high-scoring battle, justifying the line of over 3.5 goals at -105. In their recent encounter, the two sides produced a dramatic 5-4 thriller, showing both teams can contribute to goalfest situations. Italy have been involved in multiple fixtures lately that have seen high totals, while Israel’s defence has looked fragile in recent matches, letting in ten goals in their last two outings alone. Given that each side will push for goals, a 3-1 or 3-2 win for the hosts seems plausible under this market.
The Giacomo Raspadori to score anytime at -115 market offers solid value given his recent role and attacking output under Gennaro Gattuso. With Moise Kean sidelined through injury, Raspadori is expected to start in a more advanced position supporting Mateo Retegui.
He impressed in Italy’s 3–1 win against Estonia, linking play efficiently and creating key chances. Raspadori has proven his ability to score in crucial matches for both club and country. His sharp movement and composure in front of goal make him a strong anytime scorer option against a fragile Israeli defence that conceded five goals in the reverse fixture.
The bet on Mateo Retegui to either score or assist anytime at -240 rests on his consistent involvement in Italy’s attacking phases. He scored in the Estonia match (despite missing a penalty earlier) and has been a key part of the forward line with strong link-up play. In the 5-4 thriller, his attacking presence was also felt, helping create chances in an end-to-end contest. Given the offensive posture Italy are likely to adopt, Retegui’s dual role makes this a relatively safe exposure in player markets.
| Picks | Moneyline |
| Giacomo Raspadori to score first | +400 |
| Mateo Retegui to score anytime | -185 |
| Roberto Piccoli to assist anytime | +155 |
| Riccardo Orsolini to either score or assist | -230 |
| Mohammed Abu Fani to see a card | +270 |
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Italy enter this match having won four qualifying games in a row, scoring 13 goals in their last three under Gattuso. Meanwhile, Israel’s recent defensive capitulations make them vulnerable. They’ve conceded five to Norway, and four in the reverse match with Italy.
With home advantage, attacking form, and greater depth up front, Italy should be able to win by a margin. Still, Israel will likely penetrate and find a goal of their own, making 3-1 a plausible final scoreline in line with both the total goals expectation and the matchup dynamics.
The Italy vs Israel UEFA World Cup qualifiers clash is on October 14, 2025, at the Bluenergy Stadium, Udine, Italy.
Italy are favorites to win with a moneyline at -500, to draw at +600 and for Israel to win at +1250.
Mateo retegui to score anytime: -115
Riccardo Orsolini to assist anytime: +200
Francesco Pio Esposito to either score or assist: -138
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