Today’s semifinal match between Iga Swiatek (WTA No. 5) and Aryna Sabalenka (WTA No. 1) promises to deliver an exceptional spectacle to the audience at Philippe-Chatrier. Swiatek, the 4-time Roland Garros Champion (2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024), has rightfully earned her reputation as the Queen of Clay.
However, Sabalenka’s recent progress on all surfaces makes her a strong opponent of the defending champion. The former WTA No. 9 and BBC Radio 5 Live commentator Andrea Petkovic said, “It is the blockbuster of the entire tournament on the women’s side.”
The Belarusian has shown tremendous progress on clay in recent times. The World No. 1 has a 20-3 win-loss record on clay over the last 52 weeks. Sabalenka’s dropshot looks great, and her movement has also improved. Sabalenka seems to be hitting the balls much better with heavier topspin, aiming for a big target with reduced errors. Since the Belarusian adds shape to her shots, she hits big without much risk.
Sabalenka’s Polish opponent, by contrast, didn’t appear consistent on the surface lately. Her recent clay court stat is 3-2 (Stuttgart Open, Madrid Open, and Italian Open). She exited the 2025 Stuttgart Open in the quarterfinals after a straight-sets loss to Jelena Ostapenko. She then fell to Coco Gauff in the Madrid semifinals, and suffered an early-round upset to Danielle Collins in Rome. Her hold percentage and baseline solidity have notably dipped.
Yet, when it comes to Roland Garros, Swiatek has shown a remarkable resilience. In R4, she was down by 1-6, 0-2 to Elena Rybakina but stormed back to win 1-6, 6-3, 7-5. Her serve, return, and forehand regained their sting just when it mattered. But can she maintain that level under pressure from the world No. 1?
After defeating Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, Swiatek channeled a confident personality. “I feel like on this court and overall, like, Roland Garros, I should always push until the end and fight for everything, because there’s more probably that I overcome some stuff rather than in other places. I just maybe believe it a little bit more.“ she admitted.
Swiatek, a four-time French Open champion, had long ruled the clay, but this spring, her form took a surprising turn. She hadn’t won a single title, on clay or otherwise, in 2025. Instead of improving before Roland Garros, her game seemed to drift further off track. By the time she played in the Italian Open, she was struggling with consistency. For the first time, it was Sabalenka, not Swiatek, who came into Paris as the favorite!
While speaking about her clash against Swiatek, Sabalenka offered a short yet exciting answer. “I love it,” she said, admitting that her Polish opponent brings her a thrill on the court. She added, “I love tough challenges. I think this is the match where you actually improve as a player and where you get much stronger. I’m always excited to face someone strong and then someone who can challenge me.“
This is the rivalry WTA has been building toward: Swiatek’s clay-court brilliance versus Sabalenka’s skill in all-court game. Sabalenka’s raw power, improved movement, and tactical drop shots make her a real threat, especially if she controls the opening exchanges.
However, Swiatek’s forehand, mental grit, and 26-match Roland Garros win streak are something that keeps her opponent under pressure. Swiatek has rediscovered her edge, especially in crucial moments. Sabalenka might strike first, but if Swiatek extends the rallies and steps back on return, expect her to shift the tide. So, are you excited for this match?
