Who will win the 2025 Roland Garros men’s crown?
The 2025 French Open semifinals are here. Upholding the anticipation, four out of the top eight seeds have made their way into the last four in the men’s singles section. Top two seeds Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are on collision course in the summit clash – they have one final hurdle before confirming a blockbuster face-off. Standing in their path will be 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic in the top half, and Paris Olympics bronze medalist Lorenzo Musetti in the bottom half.
The Italian sensation has been tipped with the least favourable odds to enter the final. Coming up against defending champion Alcaraz, he will have a mountain to climb in the semifinal stage. If the pre-match markets are to be believed, all roads lead to a No. 1 vs No. 2 tussle in the Roland Garros final on Sunday. However, count out Djokovic at your own peril – the Serbian won the Olympic gold medal on these very courts under a year ago. Here are the odds:
After some patchy performances in his opening rounds, Carlos Alcaraz proved why he is considered the best player on this surface in his quarterfinal clash vs Tommy Paul. The Spaniard won nearly 90% points on his first serve, dropping just five games en route to a thumping success. ‘Carlitos’ also defeated Musetti and Sinner – two of the three remaining players in the draw – two weeks ago at the Italian Open. Provided he comes up against Djokovic in the final, he will look for redemption after losing in the final of the Olympics last year.
One of the deciding factors for Alcaraz will be his endurance. The 22-year-old has won in straight sets only twice thus far. It will also be a sudden jump in terms of difficulty of competition – there is no doubt that Musetti and Djokovic/Sinner are multiple levels above Alcaraz’s opponents so far. Regardless, the odds are backing the former World No. 1 to claim his fifth Grand Slam championship.
Yet to drop a set throughout the event, World No. 1 Jannik Sinner has picked up from where he left off. The Italian was sidelined from tennis for three months after winning the 2025 Australian Open title. Returning at his home tournament in Rome, Sinner reached the final last month. He is now two matches away from winning three consecutive majors on the circuit. But in order to achieve the unthinkable, the 23-year-old will possibly have to beat arguably the two best fighters on tour – Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
Sinner has 11/8 odds of winning the Roland Garros trophy this year. This is slightly inferior to his Spanish counterpart’s chances, as of the semifinal stage. While Alcaraz got the better of him in Rome, Sinner is quick to learn from his mistakes. So far in this tournament, he has beaten Arthur Rinderknech, Richard Gasquet, Jiri Lehecka, Andrey Rublev and Alexander Bublik.
Ahead of Roland Garros, World No. 6 Novak Djokovic made history by capturing his 100th tour-level title at the Geneva Open. It was a renaissance of sorts for the Serbian icon, who had succumbed to opening round defeats in four out of his five tournaments prior to that. Despite dropping his first set of the competition in his quarterfinal encounter against No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev, ‘Nole’ wore down the German to triumph in four sets.
Chasing a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam trophy, the 38-year-old veteran avenged his defeat to Zverev at the Australian Open earlier this year (Djokovic had to retire). Unfortunately, the pre-match odds are stacked against him – top seed Sinner’s red hot form has meant that he is favoured to reach a maiden French Open final.
One of the most consistent players on this surface, Lorenzo Musetti had an excellent European clay court swing this season. After reaching the final at the Principality in Monte Carlo, he accomplished a semifinal finish in the capitals of Spain and Italy. Having also won an Olympic bronze medal on these courts, one shouldn’t be too surprised about the 23-year-old’s performance in Paris.
After a couple of straightforward victories in his preliminary battles, Musetti defeated Holger Rune and Frances Tiafoe to book a spot in the final four. Taking his 1-5 head-to-head record against Carlos Alcaraz into account, the Italian has highly unfavourable odds when it comes to lifting the Musketeers’ Cup in 2025.
