Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Mohammed Usman fight at UFC Baku!
Controversy follows some fighters like a shadow, and Hamdy Abdelwahab knows this all too well. His most recent victory over Jamal Pogues in Riyadh earlier this year sparked outrage among fans and media who witnessed one of the worst judging decisions in recent memory. The Egyptian heavyweight walked away with a win that many felt belonged to his opponent. Now he faces Mohammed Usman at UFC Baku in Azerbaijan, where the younger brother of welterweight legend Kamaru Usman desperately needs a victory to salvage his struggling UFC career.
Abdelwahab carries an unblemished 6-0 record, though it comes with serious asterisks. Meanwhile, Usman has endured the growing pains typical of heavyweight prospects, dropping back-to-back decisions to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin. The losses exposed some defensive lapses in his game, particularly his tendency to become a stationary target when opponents pressure him. As Kamaru’s younger brother, Mohammed carries the burden of family expectations while trying to carve out his own identity.
This UFC heavyweight clash features two fighters with identical heights at 6’2″ but vastly different physical builds and fighting styles. Abdelwahab cuts an imposing figure at 264 pounds with a compact 72-inch reach. His statistics paint the picture of an aggressive striker who lands 3.40 significant strikes per minute with impressive 51% accuracy. More importantly, his takedown numbers are excellent, averaging 2.00 attempts per fight with 80% success rate and perfect 100% takedown defense.
Usman presents a different challenge entirely, fighting at 239 pounds with a significant reach advantage of 79 inches. His southpaw stance vs Abdelwahab’s orthodox creates interesting striking angles, though his output numbers tell a concerning story. He lands 3.41 strikes per minute but connects at just 36% accuracy while absorbing 4.41 strikes per minute. His 50% strike defense means he’s getting tagged regularly by opponents, which explains his recent struggles against quality competition.
According to BetMGM, the betting market has installed Hamdy Abdelwahab as a solid favorite at -160. Meanwhile, Mohammed Usman sits at +135. These odds reflect the market’s belief that Abdelwahab’s undefeated record, despite its controversies, represents superior skills compared to a fighter coming off consecutive losses.
The betting lines on BetMGM reveal an intriguing angle for this fight. The odds for the bout going the distance are set at -200, while a finish within three rounds is favored at +150. This clearly indicates that oddsmakers are leaning toward a decision rather than an early stoppage.
Abdelwahab’s path to victory runs through consistent pressure, mixing his striking with takedown threats to keep Usman guessing. His superior conditioning should allow him to maintain a high pace throughout the fight while his wrestling skills provide insurance if the striking exchanges become too dangerous.
Usman needs to utilize his reach advantage early and often, keeping Abdelwahab at distance with his jab and straight punches. His southpaw stance creates opportunities for counter left hands, especially if he can time Abdelwahab’s aggressive entries.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Hamdy Abdelwahab to win via unanimous decision.
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credit: Jerome Miron – Imagn Images)
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