Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Darya Zheleznyakova vs Melissa Mullins fight at UFC Baku!
The UFC’s return to Baku brings an interesting rematch that most fans probably forgot about. UFC Baku takes place on June 21, 2025 at Baku Crystal Hall, featuring a women’s bantamweight clash between Russia’s Daria Zheleznyakova and England’s Melissa Mullins. This fight carries some history between these two women.
Back in 2022, before either fighter made it to the UFC, Mullins defeated Zheleznyakova by first-round ground and pound. Now they meet again on the big stage, but both fighters have traveled different paths to get here. Zheleznyakova made a solid UFC debut by outpointing Montserrat Rendon. Mullins has been more active in the octagon, picking up wins over Klaudia Sygula and Irina Alekseeva, though she has also shown some inconsistency with weight cuts and took a brutal head kick loss to Nora Cornolle.
This bantamweight rematch presents two fighters heading in opposite directions. Zheleznyakova stands tall at 5’9″ with a 68-inch reach, making her a lengthy striker who likes to use her range. Her stats show decent striking accuracy at 38% but excellent defensive numbers with 79% strike defense. The Russian fighter averages 3.29 significant strikes per minute and has perfect takedown accuracy, though she only attempts 0.80 takedowns per fight. Her ground game remains her biggest question mark after the Perez submission.
Mullins brings a more aggressive approach at 5’7″ with the same 68-inch reach. She throws more strikes per minute at 3.43 and connects at a much higher 56% accuracy rate. However, her defense tells a different story. She absorbs 3.26 strikes per minute while only defending 49% of incoming strikes. This makes her vulnerable to counter-striking, which could play right into Zheleznyakova’s hands. Mullins averages 1.53 takedowns per fight with 37% accuracy and solid 85% takedown defense.
According to BetMGM, the moneyline heavily favors Melissa Mullins at -250. Meanwhile, Darya Zheleznyakova sits at +200. These odds reflect Mullins’ previous victory over Zheleznyakova and her more active UFC record. The betting market clearly sees the English fighter as the superior grappler who can repeat her 2022 performance.
The betting for the fight to go the distance on BetMGM shows an interesting play. The odds for this fight seeing the judges scorecards stands at +130, while the fight ending in the 3 rounds is currently at -175. This means that the oddsmakers are seeing this as an early finish.
This fight comes down to whether Darya Zheleznyakova can keep it standing and use her technical striking advantage. Her height and reach should allow her to control distance and pick apart Melissa Mullins’ aggressive but sometimes wild attacks. The key will be her takedown defense and scrambling ability if the fight hits the ground.
Mullins needs to pressure early and often, using her superior strength and aggression to overwhelm Zheleznyakova. Her path to victory runs through getting the fight to the ground where she previously dominated their first encounter. She’s shown good finishing ability in her recent UFC wins, stopping both Sygula and Alekseeva in the second round.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Melissa Mullins to win the fight via KO/TKO.
(All Odds According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)
(Image Credit: UFC – X)
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