Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes fight at UFC Baku!
The UFC makes history this weekend with its first-ever trip to Baku, Azerbaijan. This event takes place at the Baku Crystal Hall, and the co-main event promises fireworks between two of the most explosive strikers in the lightweight division. This exotic location adds extra intrigue to what’s already shaping up as one of the year’s most entertaining striking battles.
Rafael Fiziev faces Ignacio Bahamondes in a bout that showcases the dynamic striking styles of both men. Both fighters have built their reputations on spectacular knockouts and highlight-reel finishes, making this matchup a must-watch for fight fans.
This matchup screams entertainment from the opening bell. Neither fighter shows much interest in grappling, meaning fans can expect 15 minutes of pure striking violence. Fiziev makes a quick return following his decision loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 313 in March, looking to end a frustrating three-fight skid. Bahamondes represents the complete opposite trajectory. The 27-year-old Chilean has been on an absolute tear, collecting three straight Performance of the Night bonuses.
The statistical breakdown tells an interesting story. Bahamondes lands 7.09 significant strikes per minute, putting him among the most active strikers in the division. His output dwarfs Fiziev’s more modest 4.85 strikes per minute, though both men absorb similar amounts of punishment. The physical matchup heavily favors the Chilean. Bahamondes stands 6’3″ compared to Fiziev’s 5’8″ frame, creating a seven-inch height advantage that could prove decisive in the striking exchanges.
The takedown game shouldn’t factor much into this fight. Both men prefer to keep things standing, though Fiziev occasionally threatens with wrestling when hurt or behind on the scorecards. However, Bahamondes trains extensively with former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad, giving him solid takedown defense at 85 %.
The betting market reflects the competitive nature of this matchup. According to BetMGM, the odds show Fiziev as a +105 underdog. Meanwhile Ignacio Bahamondes sits at a slight -125 favourite. These near pick-em odds suggest oddsmakers view this as essentially a coin flip, with Bahamondes getting slight respect for his recent momentum and physical advantages.
The fight is surprisingly slightly favored to go the distance at -135 as per BetMGM. Meanwhile the fight not seeing the judges scorecards is currently at +100. These odds may be due to Fiziev’s ability to take shots and still keep standing. Bahamondes’ chin hasn’t been tested yet, but his KO power and speed can change this fast.
This fight comes down to whether Rafael Fiziev can recapture his best form or if Bahamondes continues his meteoric rise. The Chilean’s superior size, recent momentum, and statistical advantages create a compelling case. Fiziev’s best days might be behind him, as he’s now 32 years old and showing signs of decline in his recent performance against Garthje where he looked slow (granted it was a late replacement fight).
The key factor will be Bahamondes’ ability to use his length effectively. If he can establish his jab early and keep Fiziev at distance, the Chilean should be able to piece together combinations and potentially find a finish. Fiziev’s path to victory requires him to pressure forward, close distance, and turn this into a phone booth fight where his technical Muay Thai skills can shine.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Ignacio Bahamondes to win the fight via decision.
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(Image Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie- Imagn Images)
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