The FA Cup 3rd Round continues on Sunday, January 11, 2026. Another busy slate of fixtures spread across England will decide the teams for the fourth round of the competition. It will blend Premier League heavyweights with lower-league challengers.
Among the standout ties, Arsenal travel to Portsmouth, Liverpool host Barnsley at Anfield, and Manchester United welcome Brighton in one of the most competitive all–top-flight matchups of the round. This stage of the competition is often defined by rotation, squad depth, and motivation.
It can create betting value when markets lean too heavily on reputation alone. This article delivers our FA Cup best bets for the second day of the FA Cup 3rd round games. We’ll focus on player involvement, goal expectancy, and outright sides where the underlying numbers support the price.
For more analysis across England and Europe, visit our main soccer predictions and FA Cup betting tips hub, but for now, scroll on for today’s best bets.
Odds from FanDuel and BetMGM, accurate as of Saturday morning ET. FA Cup lines can move quickly on matchday, so always check the latest prices before betting.
Best Bet #1 – Portsmouth vs Arsenal: Bukayo Saka to Score or Assist
Arsenal’s FA Cup trip to Portsmouth sets up as a classic mismatch on paper. But the most reliable way to approach these early-round ties is often through player involvement rather than heavy handicaps. We’re backing Bukayo Saka to score or assist at +115. The price underrates his influence when Arsenal face lower-league opposition.
Saka has been one of Arsenal’s most consistent attacking outlets over the past two seasons. He has been contributing regularly through goals, assists, and chance creation from the right flank. Across his most recent run of matches in all competitions, he has averaged multiple shots (2.91) and key passes (2.46) per game.
He also remains Arsenal’s primary outlet in transition and against deep defensive blocks. Against teams that defend narrow and concede territory out wide, Saka’s 1-v-1 ability becomes even more influential. From a tactical perspective, Portsmouth are likely to sit deep and concede possession.
It would force Arsenal to circulate the ball in advanced areas. That game state plays directly into Saka’s strengths: late box arrivals, cut-backs from the byline, and combination play with overlapping full-backs. Even if Mikel Arteta opts for partial rotation, Saka has consistently been trusted in cup competitions.
Especially when Arsenal need control early in matches. The market is offering plus money on an outcome that Arsenal’s chance creation profile makes highly probable. Given Saka’s involvement rate and Arsenal’s expected dominance, we’d price this closer to even money. As long as Saka starts or logs significant minutes, this represents probable value.
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Best Bet #2 – Liverpool vs Barnsley: Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool hosting Barnsley at Anfield is one of the most lopsided ties of the round. And while the -400 price on Over 2.5 goals is short, the underlying matchup fully justifies it. Liverpool’s attacking output at home, particularly against lower-league opposition, consistently drives high goal totals.
The Reds have averaged 1.5 goals per match at Anfield across domestic competitions. It has been driven by sustained pressure, high shot volumes, and aggressive counter-pressing that keeps opponents pinned back. Against teams that struggle to play out from the back, Liverpool’s front line generates turnovers in dangerous areas.
It inflates both shot quality and xG totals. Barnsley’s recent defensive record against higher-tempo opposition suggests that they may struggle to cope with that intensity for 90 minutes. Rotation is always a factor in FA Cup fixtures. However, Liverpool’s depth in attacking areas mitigates that risk.
Even with changes, the structure remains the same: high full-backs, quick ball circulation, and midfield runners arriving in the box. Meanwhile, Barnsley are unlikely to abandon their shape entirely. But their extended defensive spells often lead to fatigue and breakdowns late in halves.
At -400, this is not a bet designed to chase upside. Instead, it functions as a high-probability inclusion for bettors looking for stability. Given the gulf between the teams, a dominating win from the Reds with three goals or more feels more likely than not. even if Liverpool manage the match after establishing control.
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Best Bet #3 – Manchester United vs Brighton: Manchester United to Win
Sunday’s most competitive tie sees Manchester United host Brighton and we’re backing United to win at a short price. The price reflects both home advantage and subtle matchup edges. Brighton are well-drilled and capable of controlling spells of possession. But the Red Devils’ strengths at Old Trafford often show up most clearly in knockout football.
Manchester United’s recent home performances have been built on defensive solidity and efficiency in key moments rather than sustained dominance. They concede fewer high-quality chances at home. They’re also more comfortable allowing controlled possession before striking quickly in transition. Brighton’s build-up-heavy approach can be effective.
However, it also exposes them to pressure when playing away against physically aggressive sides. From a squad perspective, Man United tend to take domestic cups seriously. Especially when league form has been inconsistent. It often translates into stronger lineups and higher intensity. Brighton, by contrast, have historically rotated more in cup competitions.
Especially with fixture congestion in mind. It can slightly blunt their pressing structure and passing cohesion. At -130, the market views this as close to even. However, the Red Devils’ home record in knockout settings and their ability to punish turnovers tilt the balance. We’d still play this down to around -145, factoring in Brighton’s quality but acknowledging the situational edge Man United carry at Old Trafford.
FA Cup Best Bets Recap – January 11, 2026
Best Bet #1: Portsmouth vs Arsenal – Bukayo Saka to score or assist (+115 at FanDuel)
Best Bet #2: Liverpool vs Barnsley – Over 2.5 goals (-400 at BetMGM)
Best Bet #3: Manchester United vs Brighton – Manchester United to win (-130 at FanDuel)
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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