The FA Cup 3rd Round always delivers one of the most compelling games and January 10, Saturday’s slate is no exception. 18 games are on the cards on the day with at least four intriguing ties spanning the Premier League elite and lower-league challengers.
Manchester City will host Exeter City in a classic mismatch. Chelsea are travelling to Charlton. Meanwhile, there will be two standout all-Premier League clashes – Tottenham Hotspur will welcome Aston Villa in North London and Newcastle United will face Bournemouth at home.
This article delivers our FA Cup best bets for today, breaking down where the numbers, tactical matchups, and squad situations create value. These picks blend outright sides, goal markets, and player props, designed to work for football betting audiences looking for sharp, data-driven angles.
Where to watch the #EmiratesFACup third round this weekend 📺
For more analysis across England and Europe, visit our main soccer predictions and FA Cup betting tips hub, but for now, scroll on for today’s best bets.
Odds from FanDuel and BetMGM, accurate as of Friday morning ET. FA Cup lines can move quickly on matchday, so always check the latest prices before betting.
Best Bet #1 – Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Aston Villa to Win
We’re backing Aston Villa to win at +160 away to Tottenham Hotspur. The price looks generous given their current form, tactical balance, and recent head-to-head trends. Villa are arriving in strong domestic rhythm, showing consistency both in chance creation and defensive structure across their most recent run of matches.
Spurs, by contrast, have been far more volatile. Especially when they’ve faced teams capable of pressing high and attacking space behind their aggressive full-backs. From a matchup perspective, Villa’s midfield balance has been a decisive factor this season. They have consistently limited opponents’ high-quality chances.
They’ve done it while remaining efficient in transition. It’s a profile that historically causes Spurs problems. Tottenham’s defensive line tends to sit high, and when their press is bypassed, they concede shots from central areas at a worrying rate. Villa’s forward unit, led by Ollie Watkins, is well suited to exploit exactly that kind of space.
The market is still giving Tottenham significant respect based on home advantage and brand name rather than underlying performance. Our numbers make this closer to a coin-flip. Villa are slightly favored once matchup factors are accounted for. Rotation is always a consideration in the FA Cup, but Villa’s depth and recent form patterns suggest they could prevail.
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Best Bet #2 – Charlton vs Chelsea: Aston Villa to Win
Our second pick targets goals at The Valley, backing Over 2.5 goals at -182 as Chelsea visit Charlton. This fixture sets up well for an open contest. Especially due to a significant gap in squad quality and attacking depth that could produce a number of chances from the Chelsea side. Chelsea’s recent matches across competitions have consistently produced high shot volumes.
They’ve also produced strong expected-goals figures, even if their finishing has been inconsistent. Against lower-league opposition, that shot dominance typically translates into sustained pressure, territory, and eventually goals. Meanwhile, Charlton could be forced to sit in a deep block for most of the 90 minutes. Even though the match is at home in a marquee FA Cup tie.
However, it increases the likelihood of transitional moments and defensive breakdowns. From a tactical standpoint, Chelsea’s full-backs push high and their midfielders are encouraged to arrive late in the box. It inflates goal expectancy even when rotation is expected. Charlton’s defensive record against higher-tempo sides has shown vulnerability.
Especially when they’re forced to defend wide areas repeatedly. Even though the Blues have been struggling recently with managerial hiccups and more, this mismatch in skill between the two teams puts the -182 price firmly but fairly. We project this closer to the -200 range based on Chelsea’s attacking output and Charlton’s defensive profile, making this our second choice for a best-bets card.
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Best Bet #3 – Manchester City vs Exeter City: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer
For our final best bet, we’re keeping things straightforward by backing Erling Haaland to score anytime at -425 as Manchester City host Exeter City. While the price is expectedly short, the probability gap between Haaland scoring and not scoring in this specific matchup remains significant. Man City usually dominate possession and shot volume against all levels of opposition.
However, the gulf is especially pronounced in FA Cup ties against lower-league sides. Haaland’s role in these games is clear. He will be central, penalty-area focused, and first option on cutbacks, rebounds, and set-piece second balls. Exeter are likely to spend prolonged periods defending deep. It historically increases Haaland’s shot count inside the box.
Rotation is often cited as a risk in early FA Cup rounds, but even if Haaland doesn’t start, his scoring rate against inferior opposition even when coming off the bench is exceptional. Man City’s creative structure funnels chances into high-value areas. Whereas, Exeter’s defensive metrics suggest they struggle to limit shots once pinned back for extended spells.
Even a single half of sustained pressure could be enough for Haaland to get on the scoresheet. At -425, this is not a standalone bet for everyone. However, it works well as a confidence anchor for conservative bettors or as a building block in larger portfolios. Given City’s expected dominance, Haaland scoring is quite close to a certainty.
FA Cup Best Bets Recap – January 10, 2026
Best Bet #1: Tottenham vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa to win (+160 at FanDuel)
Best Bet #2: Charlton vs Chelsea – Over 2.5 goals (-182 at BetMGM)
Best Bet #3: Man City vs Exeter – Erling Haaland anytime goalscorer (-425 at FanDuel)
Football writer at The Playoffs. I’ve been obsessed with the beautiful game since I was a kid.. Eventually, I realized I could combine my passion for writing with my love for football, and I’ve never looked back. My favorite part of the job is everything—when you’re doing what you love, even a late-night deadline feels like extra time in a thrilling cup final. Lastly, Lionel Messi is the GOAT.
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