Bia Holds the Edge, but Rybakina Brings the Heat
Fourth-seeded Elena Rybakina is set to face off against ninth seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, aka Bia, in the WTA Strasbourg semifinals. Rybakina, who received a first-round bye, has looked sharp and in control, dispatching Xin Wang and Magda Linette in straight sets without much resistance.
Bia, on the other hand, has taken the long road: she battled past Clara Tauson in three sets, then defeated Ashlyn Kruger in straight sets, and finally overcame second seed Emma Navarro in a gritty three-setter that included a tense second-set tiebreak.
While Rybakina enters the semifinal as the clear favorite, backed by her recent form and dominant performances, Bia is hoping to turn the tables. The Brazilian has had a rocky season so far, but with two wins already in their head-to-head, she knows how to challenge the Kazakh star. The question now is, can Bia shift the momentum and pull off the upset, or will Rybakina storm into the final with another clinical performance?
Rybakina has had a mixed 2025 season, but she’s showing signs of locking in at just the right time in Strasbourg. After a fourth-round exit at the Australian Open, the Kazakh quickly bounced back with strong results: semifinals in Abu Dhabi, a quarterfinal in Doha, and another semifinal run in Dubai.
However, her momentum dipped afterward slightly, with Indian Wells being her only Round of 16 finish through March, April, and even Rome. Still, she’s regained her rhythm in Strasbourg. With a 19-9 record this season, Rybakina has fired 133 aces and boasts a 72.5% first-serve win rate. Her breakpoint conversion rate of 42.9% proves she’s capitalizing on key moments when it matters.
Bia’s season tells a very different story. Coming into Strasbourg with a 3-14 record in 2025, this semifinal marks her first real breakthrough of the year in singles. Until now, she hadn’t advanced past the round of 32 at any tournament. Except for a modest round-of-16 appearance in Merida, where she was ousted by Rebecca Sramkova in straight sets. Statistically, it’s been a grind: just 33 aces and a 58.8% first-serve win rate. But Strasbourg might just be the turning point Bia’s been searching for all season.
Beatriz Haddad Maia leads the head-to-head against Elena Rybakina 2-1, but there’s a twist, actually, two.
Their rivalry began at the 2023 Abu Dhabi quarterfinals, where Bia battled back from a set down to claim the win. Just a month later in Stuttgart, Rybakina was forced to retire due to a lower back injury, giving Haddad Maia her second victory. But in their third clash, it was Bia who had to withdraw, handing Rybakina a walkover at Wimbledon after just five games due to her own back issue.
Now, they’re set for a fourth clash in Strasbourg. Rybakina will be looking to even the score and prove her mettle, while Haddad Maia aims to extend her edge and keep the upper hand in this stop-and-start rivalry.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Abu Dhabi | Quarterfinals | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 3–6, 6–3, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Stuttgart | Round of 16 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 6–1, 3–1 ret. |
| 2023 | Wimbledon | Fourth Round | Elena Rybakina | 4–1 ret. |
| Elena Rybakina | Category | Beatriz Haddad Maia |
| 12 | Ranking | 23 |
| 350-152 | Career W-L | 466-258 |
| 19-9 | YTD W-L | 3-14 |
| 8 | Career Titles | 4 |
| 1 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 0 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Rybakina enters as the favorite with superior recent results, stronger serve stats, and a more consistent 2025 season. However, Bia holds a 2-1 edge in their head-to-head and seems to be finding momentum at last. If she maintains her composure and serves well, she could push Rybakina hard.
Prediction: Elena Rybakina in straight sets
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Elena Rybakina: 1/3
Beatriz Haddad Maia: 9/4
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