On Friday, 05/09, the Denver Nuggets (1-1) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-1) in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals. The Thunder crushed the Nuggets by 43 points in Game 2 (149-106) to avenge their Game 1 loss. Can the Nuggets recover after this major beating? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Thunder showed the mirror to the Nuggets
The Thunder choked a double-digit lead during Game 1 in an embarrassing fashion. They needed a solid response, and oh boy, did they deliver a masterpiece. The team scored a mind-boggling 87 points in the first half of Game 2, the highest output during any NBA playoff game in its history.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 34 points, and the rest of the team showed amazing offensive balance. On the other hand, the Nuggets had a forgettable night. Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Christian Braun combined for an awful 6/28 shooting night (21%).
The Thunder had an answer for Nikola Jokic, limiting him to 17 points after he had 42 points in Game 1. Now the onus shifts on the Nuggets to respond emphatically. Returning to their home floor will be a huge help.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets will need to show more teeth on the defensive end. They have been twice exposed on that end and can’t allow multiple players to catch fire at the same time. They also need to contain SGA under 30 points for a change.
Nuggets Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Jamal Murray | SG: Christian Braun | SF: Michael Porter Jr. | PF: Aaron Gordon | C: Nikola Jokic
Key bench players: PG: Russell Westbrook.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The first two games have been expectedly high-scoring. During Game 1, the bookmakers assigned near identical odds around mid-220s, but the total went “over” by double-digits.
Meanwhile, they assigned identical odds to around 229 in the last game, and the total reached a whopping 26 points over the mark. Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have shot the projections into the 230s now, going above the mark in the previous two games.
I picked “under” during Game 2 and will stick with it as I expect a score in the 220s.
Jamal Murray to score over 20.5 points: Murray had 14 points in Game 2 after a 21-point performance in Game 1. During the previous series against the LA Clippers, the Nuggets’ PG scored 21 or more in three of the four games at home, including a 43-point outburst.
I believe he will be up for a big night again.
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander to be held under 32.5 points: SGA has scored 33 and 34 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively. It has been around the projected marks, and I see him going “Under” in Game 3.
Russell Westbrook to score over 13.5 points: Picking the “Over” has been a safe bet for Westbrook in all games except once he has been injured. He scored 19 in Game 2 and 18 in Game 1. I expect him to be in the 15+ points range again.
Main pick: Points: Jamal Murray O 20.5 for -115 at BetMGM
The Thunder will enter as the favorites after their Game 2 gem. They have a better defensive lineup than the Nuggets and know how to achieve terrific balance scoring-wise. Meanwhile, Denver needs Michael Porter Jr. and Christian Braun to perform much better than they have thus far, especially MPJ.
I do see them casting aside the defensive embarrassment of Game 2 and coming up with some good lockdown wares here. Overall, I’d back Denver even if the bookmakers are overwhelmingly in favor of the Thunder.
Bettling Lines:
Safe Spread Pick: Moneyline: Denver Nuggets for +185 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams- Imagn Images
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