On Sunday, 05/11, the Indiana Pacers (2-1) will host the Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2) in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semi-Finals. In Game 3, the Cavaliers return to their previous form to unlock a 22-point win (126-104). Will the Pacers deter them from leveling the series in Game 4? Read through the preview, total predictions, and player props here.
Spida got the help he deserved
The Cavs had their backs against the wall before Game 3. They had lost Game 2 in the last seconds, and couldn’t afford going 0-3. In Game 1, the Cavs were missing Darius Garland. In Game 2, they were missing both Garland and Evan Mobley, their second scoring options.
Both of them played in Game 3. While Garland struggled with a 3/11 shooting effort, Mobley had a prolific 18-point, 14-rebound, 3-block, and 3-steal performance. The return of their two major players helped them run their regular sets. But the biggest difference maker was Cavs ace Donovan Mitchell, who scored 43. His second straight 40+ points performance.
Meanwhile, the Pacers’ Floor General Tyrese Haliburton had a forgettable 2/8 shooting night along with just 5 assists and 3 turnovers. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner combined for 33 points, whereas Benedict Mathurin top-scored for the team with 23.
The Pacers were massively outrebounded. Cavs notched an 18-4 offensive rebounding edge and made five more triples on almost a similar percentage. Can the Pacers find their mojo against the rejuvenated Cavs in Game 4? They have the tools to do so.
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, SF: Jarace Walker, PF: Obi Toppin
Injuries/Updates: Isaiah Jackson is OUT for the game.
Cavaliers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Darius Garland | SG: Donovan Mitchell | SF: Max Strus | PF: Evan Mobley | C: Jarrett Allen
Key bench players: SG: Ty Jerome, SF: DeAndre Hunter, SF: Sam Merrill.
Injuries/Updates: The status of Darius Garland is UNCLEAR for Game 4.
The series has been high-scoring as expected. The Cavs’ lowest score has been just 112 while they have hit the 120 mark in six of the seven times in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Pacers have also reached the 120 mark twice this series. The first three games have gone to at least 230 points.
Thus, this has been the highest-scoring series, and the bookmakers have attached identical odds around that mark only. I see Game 4 following a similar trajectory and will go for “over” here.
Donovan Mitchell to score over 29.5 points: The Cavs guard has been spitting fire in the series thus far. He is averaging a highly impressive 41.3 points per game in three games, the highest mark by far in the Semis round. I see him continuing the trend here.
Pascal Siakam to score over 17.5 points: Siakam has averaged 15.7 PPG in this series, scoring 17 or more in two of the three games. I see him scoring in the 18-21 range here.
Max Strus: 3+ Pointers: Yes: The Cavs sharpshooter has found his stroke and has nailed 4-5 triples in the last two games. I believe he will be in a similar range here.
Main pick: Pascal Siakam O 17.5 points for -118 at BetMGM
The Cavaliers are back on track. They were missing their starting lineup against a loaded Pacers squad. Meanwhile, now the onus is upon Indiana to adjust. They have done so a lot of times since the 2024 playoffs, and I believe they will do so again, but it may not be enough.
There is a high chance of a close game akin to the second match of the series. The bookmakers have attributed a -4.5 spread in favor of the Cavs. I agree with the spread and see them win by 6-8 points.
Betting Lines(BetMGM):
Safe Spread Pick: Cavaliers -3.5 for -135 at BetMGM
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
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