Alcaraz vs. Musetti: Fire, Flair, and French Open Stakes
The former world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz is set for a high-octane semifinal battle against eighth seed Lorenzo Musetti today at the Roland Garros 2025. The Italian, currently ranked world No. 7, is enjoying his best-ever run in Paris. While four-time Grand Slam champion Alcaraz enters as the defending Roland Garros titleholder.
Alcaraz began his title defense with a routine win over Giulio Zeppieri, then navigated back-to-back four-set challenges from Fabian Marozsan, Damir Dzumhur, and 13th seed Ben Shelton. In the quarterfinals, he dispatched Tommy Paul in straight sets to book his semifinal spot.
Musetti, on the other hand, breezed through his first two rounds, taking out qualifier Yannick Hanfmann and lucky loser Daniel Elahi Galan. He then raised his level, grinding out four-set wins over Mariano Navone, 10th seed Holger Rune, and most recently, Frances Tiafoe in a physically demanding quarterfinal.
Alcaraz has lit up the 2025 season with titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, and Rome, plus deep runs in Melbourne, Doha, Indian Wells, and Barcelona. Though an injury forced him to skip Madrid. Statistically, he’s dominant: 133 aces, 71% first-serve points won, and 45% break point conversion from 323 chances.
Musetti’s year has been stop-start due to injuries, missing Rio and Barcelona. Still, he’s built momentum with quarterfinals in Hong Kong and Buenos Aires, followed by a Monte Carlo final and semis in Madrid and Rome. He’s 20-7 overall, with 81 aces, 69% first-serve points won, and 38% conversion.
Carlos Alcaraz leads Lorenzo Musetti 5-1 in their head-to-head, a rivalry that’s picked up pace over recent seasons. It began with Musetti’s lone win in the 2022 Hamburg final, a gritty three-set victory that showed early signs of his clay-court flair. But since then, it’s been all Alcaraz.
The Spaniard responded with a dominant straight-sets win at Roland Garros 2023, followed by another convincing performance in Beijing. In 2024, he continued to widen the gap with wins in Miami and continued in 2025 with Monte Carlo (after a comeback) and Rome (in straight sets).
Though they technically first crossed paths at the 2020 ATP Challenger in Trieste, a match Alcaraz also won in three. Now, as they prepare to face off in the Roland Garros 2025 semifinals, the stakes are higher than ever. This will be their seventh career meeting and third clash of the season, with Alcaraz looking to maintain his dominance.
| Year | Event | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rome | Semifinal | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–3, 7–6(4) |
| 2025 | Monte Carlo | Final | Carlos Alcaraz | 3–6, 6–1, 6–0 |
| 2024 | Miami | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–3, 6–3 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–2, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Roland Garros | Round of 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–3, 6–2, 6–2 |
| 2022 | Hamburg | Final | Lorenzo Musetti | 6–4, 6–7(6), 6–4 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Category | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 2 | Ranking | 7 |
| 239-61 | Career W-L | 152-118 |
| 30-5 | YTD W-L | 20-7 |
| 19 | Career Titles | 2 |
| 4 | Grand Slams | 0 |
| 3 | YTD Titles | 0 |
Musetti has found rhythm on clay with deep runs this spring, and his game suits the surface. But Alcaraz has had his number, winning all their meetings since 2022. With the Spaniard in top form and carrying five straight wins in this matchup, it’s tough to bet against him.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets.
Alcaraz at 2/15 and Musetti at 5/1, the odds reflect a clear gulf. Alcaraz’s dominance in recent meetings, backed by elite form and clay success, makes him the safe pick. Musetti’s talent is real but still carries questions around consistency in best-of-five contests.
Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:
Carlos Alcaraz: 2/15
Lorenzo Musetti: 5/1
Also Read: Who Are the Coaches of Carlos Alcaraz? All About the Coaching Entourage of the Spanish Star
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