The AFC Conference Championship game for the 2025-26 NFL season is right around the corner. It’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team, as a win puts them into the Super Bowl.
This year’s Conference Championship game for the AFC will be a matchup between the one-seeded Denver Broncos and the two-seeded New England Patriots. After a first-round bye, the Broncos defeated Josh Allen and the Bills in the Divisional round, while the Patriots took care of the Chargers and the Texans at home with ease.
The AFC Championship game is now poised for an intense battle between the top two teams from the conference this season. So, with that, let us now go over our best bets, odds, and predictions for the upcoming game on Sunday.
Best Bet for Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Best Bet:
Our best bet for the Broncos vs Patriots is Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TD: (+118). (Sourced from FanDuel).
For our best bet in the Broncos vs Patriots game, we are taking the Patriots’ quarterback Drake Maye to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns. New England will be facing one of the best defenses in the league in the upcoming game, but more importantly, Denver has been incredible against the run.
Having given up just 11 rushing touchdowns in their 18 games this season, the Patriots may have to look for Maye to put the ball in the end zone with his arm. In comparison, the Broncos’ secondary has allowed 21 touchdowns through the air so far.
Overall, the second-year quarterback has had a fine year under center and has thrown 35 passing touchdowns, including the postseason. Maye is also coming off a 3-touchdown passing game against the Houston Texans in the previous round of the playoffs.
New England is coming into this AFC Championship game as the favorite over Denver. A major part of the reason for that, despite being on the road, is the Broncos having to start backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham under center.
Looking at this matchup, both teams are two of the strongest in the league on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos finished the regular season as the number 3 scoring defense, allowing just 18.3 points per game, whereas the Patriots finished number 4, giving up just 18.8 points per game.
However, on the offensive side of things, the Patriots fared better, putting up 28.8 points per game, whereas the Broncos scored around 23.6. That is also with Bo Nix starting for Denver under center. As a result, we are taking the Patriots not only to win, but also cover the spread.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards: (-114)
Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been the more productive running back in the team’s previous two postseason games. Sharing duties in the backfield with TreVeyon Henderson, Stevenson has rushed for over 50 yards in both games, despite receiving similar touches.
The Broncos have a strong run defense, and yards may be tough to come by. If Hendorson continues to struggle early on, once again, the Patriots may look to increase Stevenson’s workload.
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The Broncos’ primary pass catcher, Cortland Sutton, has gone on a run of 4 games in which he has 4 or fewer receptions. Denver will be playing a top-notch defensive unit on the other side. Furthermore, with Jarrett Stidham set to take his first snaps this season, it may not be the ideal situation. Denver may even go run-heavy in this game, limiting Sutton’s production.
Here is a look at the line, spread, and points Over/Under for the Broncos vs Patriots Conference Championship round, as per FanDuel.
Moneyline Prediction
The moneyline for the Broncos’ AFC Championship game against the Patriots favors New England with odds at (-245). Although the Patriots will have to contend against the crowd and the high altitude of Denver, this seems to be the more logical outcome.
Hampered by an ankle injury to starting quarterback Bo Nix, the Broncos are currently on the backfoot. That is already a massive blow to an offense that comes second-best against the Drake Maye-led Patriots.
Defensively, there is not much between the two teams, while coaching-wise, both the Broncos and the Patriots are led by experienced minds that know what it takes to win at this stage of the season.
Spread Prediction
The spread for this game is (-4.5) in favor of the Patriots. The line has shifted from the opening odds that had New England winning by a touchdown. The game should be a closely contested one, but once again, we are taking the Patriots to cover due to their superior offense.
Over/Under (Total) Prediction
The Over/Under for total points for the AFC Championship game is set at 42.5. We are taking the Over in this one, even though both defenses are at the top of their game.
During the regular season, New England finished second in the NFL with an average of 28.8 points scored per game. Denver has also scored plenty of points, however, with less consistency. Having said that, the Broncos are just coming off a 33-30 win over the Bills from the Divisional round.
Broncos vs Patriots Odds
Here, we take a look at the latest Broncos vs Patriots odds from a couple of our favourite sportsbooks, namely, FanDuel and BetMGM.
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Trends to Know for Broncos vs Patriots
The Broncos have a 5-5 Over record at home this year.
Denver is 10-3 against teams in the AFC this season.
The Broncos are 2-0 ATS as home underdogs.
New England is a perfect 8-0 on the road this year.
The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
The Patriots have a 2-2 Over record as away favorites.
Latest Injuries for Broncos vs Patriots
Apart from Bo Nix for the Denver Broncos and Harold Landry III and Marte Mapu for the Patriots, the injury reports of both teams look good ahead based on the practice sessions held on Wednesday, January 21st.
Player
Team
Position
Injury
Practice status
Pat Bryant
Broncos
WR
Concussion
LP
J.K. Dobbins
Broncos
RB
Foot
LP
Alex Forsyth
Broncos
C
Ankle
LP
Troy Franklin
Broncos
WR
Hamstring
LP
Bo Nix
Broncos
QB
Ankle
DNP
Harold Landry III
Patriots
LB
Knee
DNP
Marte Mapu
Patriots
LB
Hip
DNP
Carlton Davis III
Patriots
CB
Concussion Protocol
LP
Christian Elliss
Patriots
LB
Hip
LP
Hunter Henry
Patriots
TE
Not Injury Related / Rest
LP
Morgan Moses
Patriots
OT
Not Injury Related / Rest
LP
Thayer Munford Jr.
Patriots
OT
Knee
LP
*Note: FP – Full Participant, LP – Limited Participant, DNP – Did Not Practice
The temperatures during kickoff time are expected to be around the mid-40s, with light winds around 1-9 mph. No meaningful snow is expected with the precipitation levels being on the lower side (0-12%). Although Denver’s high altitude may impact stamina, it should generally be a good day to play football.
What time is the Broncos vs Patriots AFC Conference Championship Game?
The Broncos and the Patriots’ AFC Championship game is set for a late afternoon window on Sunday, 25th January, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET. This will be the first game of the Conference Championship round.
Where is the Broncos vs Patriots game being played?
This game between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will be played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, home of the Broncos.
How can I watch the Broncos vs Patriots?
The AFC Conference Championship game will come to you live on CBS, which will air the game nationwide. Locally, in the Boston area, viewers can also catch the action on WBZ-TV. Streaming options for the game include Paramount+, YouTube/Sunday Ticket (YouTube TV), Fubo, Hulu + Live TV, and NFL+ for mobiles and tablets.
The above odds are sourced from FanDuel. Use FanDuel to ace your betting game in all sports!
I am a content writer for the NFL team, and joined The Playoffs after working with Sportskeeda and NFL Analysis as an NFL writer. After starting my professional career as a French-to-English translator, working as a content writer is a new adventure for me. I started out in the sports media field for two main reasons: my love for sports in general, especially the NFL, NBA, and Tennis, as well as my passion for writing. The best part of this job is that I get to write a variety of pieces with the freedom to explore content from various angles. It also enables me to stay up to date with the sporting world, which otherwise can be difficult to do in the day-to-day grind. In a world full of chaos, sports unite and entertain like nothing else!
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