Jul 26, 2025; Washington, D.C., USA; Alex de Minaur (AUS) waves to the crowd after his match against Corentin Moutet (FRA)(not pictured) in a men's singles semi-final on day six of the Mubadala Citi DC Open at Rock Creek Park Tennis Center.

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Alex de Minaur Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP National Bank Open 2025 Round of 16

Winner to face Shelton or Cobolli in the QFs.

In the battle between the No. 7 and No. 9 seeds, American title hope Frances Tiafoe is set to take on 2023 Canadian Open runner-up Alex de Minaur in the National Bank Open 2025 Round of 16. It will be the fourth career meeting between these two ATP mainstays. Who will come out on top? Keep reading to find out our predictions, as well as the BetMGM best odds ahead of the clash.

Frances Tiafoe seems to have entered his ruthless aggression era since Wimbledon. The 27-year-old historically ups his level during the North American and US Open swing, owing to the court conditions and home support. He has notched two impressive three set wins so far in Toronto – against Watanuki and Vukic. While Tiafoe is still searching for a maiden trophy in 2025, he has been the runner-up in Houston. ‘Big Foe’ has a 7-6 hard court record this year, and lost in the QFs of his most recent tournament at the Citi DC Open.

Big Foe is FEELING IT 😤

Tiafoe defeats Vukic 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 to reach the round of 16 in Toronto!#NBO25 pic.twitter.com/VcvhwedT1Y
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) August 1, 2025

On the other hand, Alex de Minaur picked up the title in Washington last week. It was the Australian’s first title in an otherwise consistent season. The World No. 8 began 2025 with two quarterfinals and a final. He also had an encouraging clay court campaign, before suffering a shock loss at Roland Garros. Coming into this match with a 37-13 record this year, de Minaur has also won 80% service games on this surface. He defeated Comesana and received a walkover against O’Connell to get to this stage of the competition.

Alex de Minaur won the Washington Open title like this

🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/82tRAWSJwS
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) July 28, 2025

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur Head to Head Record

Alex de Minaur leads the head-to-head against Frances Tiafoe by 2-1. They will face each other for the first time in nearly three years on Sunday.

The Aussie grabbed a stranglehold of this duel in the pre-Covid era. He beat Tiafoe in two gripping encounters at the 2018 US Open and 2019 Next Gen ATP Finals. The 26-year-old also got the better of his American counterpart in the qualifying event of Brisbane in 2017, which doesn’t count in the official ATP scoreline. But in 2022, Tiafoe exacted revenge with a straight sets victory over de Minaur in Paris Bercy.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2022 Paris Masters	Round of 16	Frances Tiafoe	6-3 7-6(5)
2019 Next Gen Finals	Semifinal	Alex de Minaur	4-2 4-1 0-4 4-2
2018 US Open	Round of 64	Alex de Minaur	6-4 6-0 5-7 6-2

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur Career Comparison

Frances Tiafoe	Category	Alex de Minaur
0	Grand Slams	0
3	ATP Singles Titles	10
0	ATP Doubles Titles	1
0	Masters-1000 Titles	0
R2 (Tokyo 2020)	Olympics Best Performance	–
No. 12	Current World Ranking	No. 8

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur ATP National Bank Open 2025 Prediction

Alex de Minaur is playing some of his best tennis of the season at the moment. The Australian has adapted perfectly to the warm conditions, and has managed to strike the perfect balance between generating his own pace and using the power of his opposition. Meanwhile, Tiafoe is yet to cross the 60% mark on first serves during the tournament. While he has been superior from the baseline in his opening two rounds, the fatigue could kick in against a strong baseline counter-punch specialist such as de Minaur.

Prediction: Alex de Minaur in straight sets.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur ATP National Bank Open 2025 Betting Odds

Alex de Minaur starts as the betting favourite in this Round of 16 clash against Frances Tiafoe. According to the pre-match implied probability on the money line however, Tiafoe has a 70% chance of succeeding. Here are all the favourable odds (as per BetMGM):

Frances Tiafoe Win: 11/4
Alex de Minaur Win: 13/50

Total Games By Tiafoe <11.5: 7/10
Total Sets <2.5: 12/25
Tiafoe +1.5 (Set Handicap): 23/25
Alex de Minaur to Win 2-0: 3/4
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 8/15

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Geoff Burke, Imagn Images)

Alex de Minaur

ATP

ATP 1000

Ben Shelton

Betting

Flavio Cobolli

Frances Tiafoe

National Bank Open

Tennis

US Open

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.