UFC Vegas 113’s main event features a bantamweight clash between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. This five round headliner pits the American volume striker against the Brazilian finisher in a technical battle at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Bautista opens as a -170 favorite, with Oliveira at +140 as the underdog. This main event could determine the next in line for the title eliminator.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 113: Bautista vs Oliveira, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC Vegas 113 – UFC Apex
Weight class: UFC Bantamweight bout
Fight length: 5-round main event
Date & time: Saturday, February 7, 2026 – Main card: 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: February 5, 2026 – 12:20 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Bautista vs Oliveira.
Tale Of The Tape
Mario Bautista
Vinicius Oliveira
Record
16-3
23-3
Age
31
30
Height
5’9″
5’9″
Reach
69″
70″
Stance
Switch
Switch
Sig. Strikes Landed
5.58
5.28
Striking Accuracy
48%
43%
Takedowns
1.48
1.67
Takedown Defense
54%
80%
Submission Avg.
0.0
0.2
Bautista holds advantages in striking volume and accuracy. Oliveira counters with superior striking defense, significantly lower damage absorption, better takedown accuracy, and elite takedown defense. The switch-stance vs switch-stance matchup creates unpredictable exchanges.
Fighter Breakdown – Mario Bautista Analysis
Bautista comes in with a 16-3 record bringing elite volume striking to the bantamweight division. The 31 year old is a well-rounded threat with switch-stance and relentless pace.
Strengths: Elite striking volume (5.58 per minute) overwhelms opponents. Superior striking accuracy. Switch stance creates unpredictable angles. Solid wrestling with 1.48 takedowns per fight. Experience in five-round fights. Well-rounded skillset.
Weaknesses: High damage absorption (4.19 per minute). Poor takedown defense (54%) against elite wrestlers. Low takedown accuracy (32%) despite attempts. No submission threat (0.0 attempts).
Betting Angles: Bautista’s -170 moneyline offers minimal value. Bautista by Decision (+250) is excellent value given his volume advantage over five rounds. Fight goes the distance (+140) aligns with both fighters’ durability.
Oliveira brings a 23-3 record with exceptional defensive metrics and finishing ability. The 30 year old Brazilian is a technical striker with elite takedown defense.
Strengths: Exceptional damage avoidance. Elite takedown defense (80%). Superior striking defense (57%). Better takedown accuracy (50%). Extensive experience and switch stance versatility. Good Finishing ability.
Betting Angles: Oliveira’s +140 moneyline offers value for his defensive excellence. Oliveira by KO/TKO (+280) provides value if counters accumulate damage.
This five round main event between two technical switch-stance bantamweights should reach the judges. Oliveira’s exceptional defensive metrics — 57% striking defense and just 2.89 strikes absorbed per minute make him extremely difficult to finish. His elite 80% takedown defense neutralizes Bautista’s wrestling attempts.
Meanwhile, Bautista’s durability and experience in five-rounders keep him safe from Oliveira’s finishing attempts. Submission threats are minimal (0.0 for Bautista, 0.2 for Oliveira). At +140 (implied 41.7%), we project this goes the distance around 55-60%, offering excellent value.
Bautista’s superior striking volume and accuracy should accumulate points over five rounds despite Oliveira’s defensive skills. The American’s switch-stance versatility creates scoring opportunities, and his 1.48 takedowns per fight provide additional control time.
Oliveira’s counter-striking approach yields lower volume, potentially losing rounds to judges favoring activity. Five rounds heavily favor Bautista’s cardio and output. At +250 (implied 28.6%), we project this outcome closer to 35%, offering solid value as the most likely result.
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Small stake only. Oliveira’s finishing ability and Bautista’s high damage absorption (4.19 per minute) create knockout opportunities. If Oliveira’s counters land clean and accumulate damage over five rounds, a late stoppage becomes possible.
Bautista’s poor 54% takedown defense could lead to ground-and-pound finishes if Oliveira’s wrestling breaks through. At +280 (implied 26.3%), this offers solid payout for the upset finish path. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision
We are backing Bautista to secure a clear unanimous decision victory, likely 49-46 on all scorecards. The American’s superior striking volume, accuracy, and five-round experience should prove decisive over 25 minutes.
Bautista should win the rounds with sustained volume, using his switch-stance versatility to create angles and land combinations. Oliveira’s exceptional defensive metrics keep rounds competitive, but the judges should favor Bautista’s activity. Oliveira may steal a round or even two with effective counter-striking and cleaner damage, capitalizing on Bautista’s defensive lapses.
But as the fight progresses into championship rounds, Bautista’s experience and cardio should overwhelm Oliveira’s counter-punching approach. The volume advantage becomes increasingly pronounced in rounds 4-5, securing the decision. This victory positions Bautista in the mix for the next title eliminator bout. .
How to Bet UFC Vegas 113: Tips for This Card
Beyond the bantamweight main event, UFC Vegas 113 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Five-round cardio matters. Bautista’s volume approach becomes more effective over 25 minutes. Championship rounds favor high-output fighters.
Defensive metrics predict decisions. Oliveira’s 2.89 strikes absorbed per minute and 57% defense strongly suggest survival to the final bell. Elite defense prevents finishes.
Bautista’s 5.58 volume at 48% accuracy vs Oliveira’s 5.28 at 43% creates classic judging question. Activity typically wins main events.
UFC Vegas 113 Fight Card
Main Card (09:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Bantamweight bout, 5 rounds
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)
Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds
Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds
Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Wang Cong vs Eduarda Moura – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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