UFC 325 heads to Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney on January 31, delivering a championship rematch and explosive main card action. The event features Alexander Volkanovski defending his featherweight title against Diego Lopes in a highly anticipated rematch, plus dangerous lightweight battles!
This is our main card predictions article, focusing on the five biggest fights and where we are finding value in the UFC betting odds. You can find all of our latest UFC predictions and betting picks on our main UFC page. Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325’s main card.
Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight championship against Diego Lopes in a rematch of their UFC 314 clash. Volkanovski is 27-4 overall, having already defeated Lopes via unanimous decision eight months ago to reclaim his title. Lopes is 27-7 with explosive finishing power but enters having lost the most important fight of his career.
This matchup screams decision rematch. Volkanovski dominated the first fight through superior cardio, fight IQ, and well-rounded skills over five full rounds. His championship experience dwarfs Lopes’ single title shot, and nothing in the rematch timeline suggests Lopes has made the adjustments necessary to flip the script.
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Volkanovski’s game plan is clear: push relentless pace, pressure Lopes against the cage, and drain his gas tank past round three. His 82% takedown defense neutralizes Lopes’ grappling threats, keeping the fight in open space where Volkanovski’s volume striking (5.03) accumulates damage.
At +140 for Volkanovski by decision, this offers tremendous value. If Volkanovski wins (which we estimate around 60% probability), it’s almost certainly by decision given both fighters’ durability and the first fight blueprint. We’re essentially getting plus money on what should be closer to even money.
Best Bet #2 – Benoit Saint-Denis vs Dan Hooker: Saint-Denis Moneyline
Benoit Saint-Denis faces Dan Hooker in a pivotal lightweight matchup with major title implications. Saint-Denis has 100% UFC finishes (8 wins, 8 finishes) with devastating submission skills. Hooker is 23-13 at age 35 following submission losses in 2 of his last 3 defeats.
This comes down to Saint-Denis’ relentless finishing ability against Hooker’s deteriorating submission defense. Saint-Denis’ pressure-heavy style forces opponents into deep water where his elite grappling takes over. He just choked out Mauricio Ruffy and knocked out Beneil Dariush in brutal fashion, showing he’s peaking at the perfect time. Hooker’s 75 inch reach and volume striking (4.89) won’t matter if he can’t stop the takedown.
We expect Saint-Denis to pressure forward, land strikes standing, secure takedowns in rounds 1-2, and hunt submissions until Hooker breaks. Hooker’s toughness is legendary, but his submission defence has clear holes that Saint-Denis will exploit. At -320, Saint-Denis is correctly priced as a heavy favorite. We estimate his win probability around 75-78%, making this a strong play.
Rising heavyweight Tallison Teixeira faces Australian veteran Tai Tuivasa in a crucial heavyweight bout. Teixeira brings youth, speed, and overwhelming striking volume. Tuivasa is fighting at home but enters on a devastating 5 fight losing streak, all by finish, at age 32.
This is a pure striker vs fading veteran scenario. Teixeira lands a massive 12.83 significant strikes per minute with one-punch knockout power, overwhelming opponents with volume and aggression. At 6’7″ with an 83 inch reach, he throws heavy punches over shorter opponents and doesn’t stop until the referee intervenes.
Tuivasa has 14 UFC knockouts and thrives on violent exchanges, but his defensive liabilities have been exposed repeatedly. Each loss followed the same pattern: Tuivasa walks forward hunting his signature bomb, absorbs accumulating damage, and gets stopped. The 18-month layoff might have refreshed him mentally, but heavyweight chins don’t improve with age.
We favor Teixeira to push forward, land volume strikes early, and secure a stoppage in rounds one or two before Tuivasa can land his homerun punch. At -170 for Teixeira by KO/TKO, this offers value. We estimate this outcome around 65-70% probability. If Teixeira wins, it’s almost certainly by KO given his finishing rate and Tuivasa’s defensive vulnerabilities.
Value Play – Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy: Over 2.5 Rounds
Pick: Fiziev vs Ruffy Over 2.5 Rounds (-190) at FanDuel
Rafael Fiziev faces Mauricio Ruffy in the card’s most technical striking battle. Fiziev is a crafty Muay Thai specialist with elite defensive awareness. Ruffy brings explosive power but faced his first UFC loss via submission to Saint-Denis.
This is a pure point-fighting matchup that screams decision. Fiziev lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, prioritizing clean counters over reckless finishing attempts. Ruffy counters with 57% striking accuracy and one-punch power.
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The key is mutual durability. Fiziev has only been finished once in his entire career (knee by Rafael dos Anjos), while Ruffy’s lone UFC loss came via submission, not strikes. We expect patient striking, defensive awareness, and a fight that goes the full 15 minutes with volume and accuracy determining the winner.
At -190 for over 2.5 rounds, this offers solid value. We estimate the probability of this fight reaching round three around 70-72%. Both fighters respect each other’s power enough to avoid reckless exchanges, and their defensive skills prevent early catastrophe.
Odds updated as of January 30, 12:00 PM ET. Prices can change, so always check live odds before betting.
How We Are Betting On UFC 325
The heavyweight bout between Teixeira and Tuivasa is the most finish-heavy fight on the card. Consider method-of-victory bets over straight moneylines for better value.
Avoid stacking all five main-card moneyline favorites. We expect at least one underdog to have a realistic upset path, particularly Tuivasa’s home-crowd energy and one-punch power.
The main event rematch timeline (8 months) favors Volkanovski. It was not enough time for Lopes to make dramatic improvements, but enough time for Volkanovski to refine his winning game plan.
UFC 325 Main Fight Card
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 – Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds
Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
Tai Tuivasa vs Tallison Teixeira – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Quillan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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