UFC 322 – Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev Predictions, Betting Odds And Best Bets

Islam Makhachev makes history November 15th at Madison Square Garden,. He is moving up to welterweight to challenge for a second divisional title against Jack Della Maddalena. This Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev main event features elite striking against pound for pound grappling dominance in a five-round test. This bout will determine whether the Dagestani can replicate his lightweight success at 170 pounds.

Makhachev stands 5’10” with a 70 inch reach. His 27-1 record showcases conservative striking at 2.63 per minute with excellent 58% accuracy while absorbing just 1.55. Makhachev’s striking defense sits at 61%, reflecting his preference for controlling fight positioning rather than extended striking exchanges. His grappling dominates with 3.20 takedowns per fight at 53% accuracy and 1.1 submission attempts. He has elite 90% takedown defense that ensures fights stay in his world.

Della Maddalena measures 5’11” with a 73 inch reach. His 18-2 record showcases explosive striking at 6.84 per minute with solid 52% accuracy while absorbing 4.53. Maddalena’s striking defense registers at 64%, superior to Makhachev’s. His grappling remains minimal with just 0.16 takedowns per fight at 11% accuracy and 0.2 submission attempts. His 69% takedown defense presents the fight’s critical vulnerability against Makhachev’s wrestling.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev Predictions And Picks

This UFC title fight breaks down to whether Della Maddalena’s striking volume and power can keep Makhachev at distance. Della Maddalena holds massive advantages with 6.84 strikes per minute against Makhachev’s 2.63, superior reach at 73 inches, and devastating knockout power proven throughout his UFC run.

Two killers. One stage. Madison Square Garden. 🏟️
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev is set for #UFC322!
Rate your excitement from 1–10 ⬇️🔥

(via @ufc ) pic.twitter.com/08ud6SYjIn
— Red Corner MMA (@RedCorner_MMA) August 29, 2025

However, the statistics reveal a grappling mismatch favoring Makhachev. His 3.20 takedowns per fight at 53% accuracy should overwhelm Della Maddalena’s 69% takedown defense, a number that proves vulnerable against elite wrestlers. Makhachev’s chain wrestling and clinch pressure don’t rely on single takedown attempts but rather constant positional warfare that drains opponents mentally and physically.

The critical factor lies in Makhachev’s elite 1.55 strikes absorbed per minute, the lowest on this card. His defensive mastery ensures he survives striking exchanges while closing distance for grappling entries. Della Maddalena’s aggressive output creates openings for Makhachev’s level changes and clinch work.

If we bet on this fight, we are going with Islam Makhachev to win via submission.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev MMA Betting Odds

Islam Makhachev enters as a solid favorite at -290 on FanDuel. Meanwhile, Jack Della Maddalena comes in as the +215 underdog. The odds reflect confidence in Makhachev’s grappling dominance overcoming Della Maddalena’s striking advantages and the challenges of moving up in weight.

FanDuel

High total bonus ceiling

Daily second-chance bet protection

No promo code required

$150

Welcome offer

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Click to reveal code

COPIED

F A N D U V I P

Claim now

New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.

The odds for the fight going the distance stand at +134. The probability of an early finish is higher and the odds (-172) reflect expectations given Makhachev’s finishing ability once fights hit the mat.

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev Best Bets

Here are the best bets for Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev fight:

Makhachev Moneyline (-290)

Fair price on the former pound-for-pound fighter. His 3.20 takedowns per fight at 53% accuracy should exploit Della Maddalena’s 69% takedown defense repeatedly over five rounds. The grappling mismatch overwhelms striking advantages.

Makhachev by Submission (+200)

Outstanding value on the most likely finish. Della Maddalena’s minimal ground game with 0.2 submission attempts reveals grappling inexperience against Makhachev’s 1.1 submission attempts and elite positional control. Once this hits the mat, submissions become almost inevitable.

Fight Over 1.5 Rounds (-112)

Safe bet on Della Maddalena’s durability and striking keeping early rounds competitive. His 6.84 strikes per minute creates problems before Makhachev’s grappling accumulates damage. The finish likely comes in rounds 2-4 after positional dominance wears down the welterweight champion.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Sergei Belski – Imagn Images)

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!