The 2025 WNBA semi-finals are heating up with elimination on line. After stealing victory in the semifinals series opener against the Las Vegas Aces, the the Fever dropped two consecutives games. However, they managed to crawl back in the series with a hard-fought 90-83 victory in Game 4. The Aces, on the other hand, dominated Games 2 and 3 showing strong defensive efforts. However, they failed to close out the series at Indianapolis.
The series is now tied 2-2, and everything comes down to a crucial Game 5, where the second-seeded Aces will welcome the sixth-seeds Indiana Fever. The Aces, led by A’ja Wilson, will look to exploit an injury-riddled Indiana, backed by their roaring home crowd on Tuesday. The winner of the series will lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury in the best-of-seven WNBA Finals series, starting on Friday, October 3.
Time: Tuesday, September 30, 2025 | 9:30 pm ET
Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas
Where to Watch: ESPN Network, WNBA League Pass
The Aces headed into the playoffs riding on a 16-game winning streak, and finished second on the stndings with a 30-14 record. In the opening round of the postseason, they locked horns with the Seattle Storm and handed them a 2-1 win to make their seventh consecutive semifinals appearances. The Aces dropped the series opener to the Fever, but quickly got back into momentum and took a 2-1 lead in the series.
In Game 4, despite A’ja Wilson’s 31-point performance, Las Vegas failed to clinch victory and fell 90-83, owing to their weak defensive performance. During the regular season, the Aces averaged 83.6 points per game (sixth in the league), while limiting their opponents to 80.1 points. As action heads back to Las Vegas, let’s have a look at a few stats and facts about them.
Kierstan Bell, NaLyssa Smith, A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young
Key Bench Players: Dana Evans, Jewell Loyd
Injuries: None to report
The Fever, were one of the least favorites teams to advance to the postseason, let alone the semifinals. Despite losing five key players to season-ending injuries, the Fever displayed resilience and fought their way through to the semis. Even in the five-game series, they gave a tough compeition to their upper-seeded rivals.
The Fever finished their regular-season campaign with a 24-20 win-loss record, scoring 84.9 points per game.
Here are a few stats about them:
Lexie Hull, Natasha Howard, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell, Odyssey Sims
Key Bench Players: Brianna Turner, Aerial Powers
Injuries: Chloe Bibby – OUT (left knee)
Caitlin Clark – OUT (right groin)
Sydney Colson – OUT (left knee)
Sophie Cunningham – OUT (right knee)
Damiris Dantas – OUT (concussion protocol)
Aari McDonald – OUT (right foot)
The Las Vegas Aces enter the series decider with over 7.5 points with -420 on moneyline. Game 5 is expected to be a low-scoring affair where both teams would put on their best defensive shoe forward. The total is likely to be U 158.5.
Here is an overview of my picks:
| Picks | Odds, as per FanDuel |
| Total U 158.5 | -112 |
| Spread: Aces -7.5 | -120 |
| A’ja Wilson to Record a Double Double | -210 |
| Moneyline: Aces | -420 |
A’ja Wilson to Record a Double Double (-210): Wilson hit two double-double in the last seven games. Regarded as one of the best players in the league, Wilson can be backed to record a double-double in Game 5.
Jackie Young O 16.5 Points (-114): Wilson is averaging 19.0 points per game through the playoffs. In the last seven games, she has dropped over 16 points on five occasions. Considering what is at stake, we can expect Young to score over the mark in the upcoming game.
Aliyah Boston O 9.5 Rebounds (-125): Boston has grabbed over 10.7 rebounds per game in the postseason. She can be wagered to come up with over 9.5 rebounds in Game 5 on Tuesday.
Kelsey Mitchell U 21.5 Points (-130): Mitchell, the leading Fever scorer, has dropped 23.3 points per game during the postseason. In the last five games, there have been four cases, where she has crossed 20-point mark. However, the elite Aces defense would limit her and she would finish the game under 21.5 points.
Main Pick: A’ja Wilson to Record a Double Double (-210) on FanDuel
The Indiana Fever led the Las Vegas Aces 2-1 during their regular season meetups. However, the Aces dominated the standings and finished in an upper seed than the Fever. During their semifinals series, Indiana secured first-game win, but dropped the later two. But, they didn’t let go of their opportunity to be in the WNBA Finals for the first time in a decade, and clinched a crucial Game 4 win.
However, as action moves to Las Vegas, the hosts are likely to make the most of their home-court advantage and defeat the Fever to book a finale date with the Phoenix Mercury.
Spread/Moneyline Pick: Las Vegas Aces -7.5 at -420 on FanDuel
The Aces are favored to win by 7.5 points in Game 5 against the Fever.
Total points for Game 5 between the Aces and the Fever is set at 158.5 points.
The moneyline is set at the Aces (-420) and Fever at (+300).
Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.
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