The 2025 WNBA season has reached its last leg. In the Finals, the Las Vegas Aces will lock horns with the Phoenix Mercury in the newly-adapted best-of-seven series. The opening fixture is scheduled for Friday, October 3 at the Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas. The second-seeded Aces 3-2 defeat to the Indiana Fever in a hard-fought semifinals series. In the opening round, they took down the Seattle Storm 2-1 in a three-game series.
The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, have embraced the underdog mentality all season long. After finishing the regular season campaign with a 27-17 record, they handed a 2-1 defeat to the reigning champions, New York Liberty, in the first round. Later in the semifinals, they got better of seasonal leaders Minnesota Lynx 3-1, and made it to the finals for the first time since 2021.
It will be a treat for sports lovers as the two best teams from the season clash to decide the league’s 29th champion.
Where to Watch Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals Game 1
Time: Friday, October 3, 2025 | 8 pm ET Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena Where to Watch: ESPN, WNBA League Pass
New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Lineups, News, Form
Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces had the best end to their regular season campaign, as they posted a 16-game winning streak. They averaged 83.6 points per game (sixth in the standings), and limited their rivals to 80.1 points per game. They have made it to the Finals three times in the last four seasons, winning it both in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The Aces have home-court advantage in the series as well as have a bunch of core players from the 2023 championship team.
One can expect it to be a relatively challenging series as the league adapts a best-of-seven format for the first time in the history of the league.
Here are a few facts and stats about them:
The Aces led the WNBA playoffs in offensive rating at 108.9 points per game.
They also sit on top of the effective field goal percentage charts at 53.9% in eight games.
Three of their four regular season games against the Mercury have been decided by six points or less.
Las Vegas Aces Expected Lineup
A’ja Wilson, Kierstan Bell, NaLyssa Smith, Chelsea Smith, Jackie Young Key Bench Players: Jewell Loyd, Dana Evans Injuries: None
Phoenix Mercury
This is going to be the first Finals appearance for the Mercury since 2021, and the last time they won the trophy was in 2014. Overall, they have won three titles in the history of the franchise. Phoenix entered the 2025 season with a restructured roster, having acquired Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to pair with star guard Kahleah Copper. Even though their superstars Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner are no longer a part of the franchise, the revamped Mercury proved themselves as one of the best teams in the league.
Here are a few stats and facts about them:
In the regular season, the Mercury recorded the third-highest win percentage at 13-8 in clutch games.
Six of Phoenix’s seven playoff games have featured clutch time, where Mercury tallied 4 wins and 2 losses.
The Mercury lead the playoffs in defensive rating 92.2 points per game.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals Game 1 Total Over/Under Prediction- WNBA Best Bets
As stated, three of the Mercury and Aces’ four regular-season clashes ended with a margin of six points or less. Hence, we can expect the upcoming game as well as the series to be a close-contested affair. In addition, the total is likely to fare over 159.5 as similar to their regular-season matchups. Apart from that, the Aces hold home advantage in the upcoming game as they enter the fixture as favorites to clinch victory with over 2.5 points.
Here is an overview of my picks:
Picks
Odds from FanDuel
Total O 159.5 Points
-114
Spread: Aces: -2.5 Points
-115
Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points
-128
Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces
-150
Alyssa Thomas O 15.5 Points- She has been averaging 18.6 points, and has had three of the last five games above 20 points. We think Thomas will continue her defensive dominance in the finale series and guide the side to a decent score at the end of the game.
A’ja Wilson U 26.5 Points- Wilson, the leading Aces scorer has a postseason average of 26.0 points. The four-time WNBA MVP has had two straight 30+ point performances. However, considering what is at stake, the Mercury’s defense will restrict her under 26 points in Game 1.
Chelsea Gray U 6.5 Assists- Gray has recorded an average of 7.3 assists per game during the playoffs. In the upcoming game, the Mercury would restrict her under 6.5 assists.
Alyssa Thomas U 9.5 Rebounds- Thomas has been averaging 8.4 rebounds through all seven postseason games. In the last five games, she has grabbed eight or more rebounds, and in the upcoming game, we expect her to drop a similar performance and stay under.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game 1 Prediction
The Las Vegas Aces led the Mercury 3-1 during their four-game regular season contests. While the Mercury have established themselves as one of the best teams in the season, they are still not close to the Mercury, who finished the season on a 16-game winning streak. Moreover, the Aces do have an upper hand in the upcoming series, considering they will begin the series at home court, backed by their home fans.
They also have the best player in the league, A’ja Wilson, who has been creating history every other game in the playoffs. While Phoenix will give a tough competition to their rivals, it will be the Aces who will prevail in Game 1.
Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.
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