The 2025 WNBA Finals kicked off with a thrilling 89-86 victory of the Las Vegas Aces over the Phoenix Mercury at Michelob Ultra Arena. A’ja Wilson, once again, delivered a powerful performance of 21 points and 10 rebounds, to guide the side to a 1-0 lead in the league’s first-ever best-of-finals series. Alongside her, Dana Evans also dropped 21 points off the bench, and the Aces made a stunning fourth-quarter comeback to prevail in the series opener.
The Aces, who took down the Indian Fever 3-2 in the semifinals and got over the Seattle Storm in the first round, hold home-court advantage in the ongoing series. The Mercury, on the other hand, stunned the New York Liberty in the first round before ousting the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx 3-1 in the semifinals. As the action shifts to Game 2, the Mercury find themselves desperate to win the game and even the score before teams move to PHX Arena.
It will be a spectacle to see both teams battle for a victory in Game 2 on Sunday.
Where to Watch Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals Game 2
When: Sunday, October 5, 2025 | 3 pm ET Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Nevada TV: ESPN, ABC | Live Stream: WNBA League Pass
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Lineups, News, Form
Las Vegas Aces
After capping their regular season on a 16-game winning streak, the Aces dominated their rivals all throughout the postseason. While they had to prove themselves in five games during the semifinals, the A’ja Wilson-led side got past the Indiana Fever and made it to their third WNBA Finals in four years.
In Game 1 of the finale, they made a stunning comeback after trailing most of the game. They turned up their defense in the last quarter, and broke their rivals’ rhythm to clinch a thrilling win to gain early dominance in the series. Here are a few stats and facts about them:
Dana Evans is now the first player in WNBA Finals history to make five threes and record four steals in a game.
A’ja Wilson crossed the 500 career postseason rebounds mark on Friday.
Wilson now has the most 20/10 games in the WNBA Finals history.
Las Vegas Aces Expected Lineup
A’ja Wilson, Kierstan Bell, NaLyssa Smith, Chelsea Smith, Jackie Young Key Bench Players: Jewell Loyd, Dana Evans Injuries: No Injuries.
Phoenix Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury, after playing the regular season as underdogs, defeated the New York Liberty in the opening round, and the Lynx in the semifinals. In the Finals Game 1, Phoenix led the contest for the first three points. However, the missed free throws by Alyssa Thomas in the final 24 seconds ended up costing them the victory. However, the Mercury have a chance to respond in the upcoming game, and they would want to make the most of it before heading home for Game 3 and 4.
Here are a few stats and facts about them:
DeWanna Bonner surpassed Ruth Riley for fifth spot on the All-time Playoff blocks list with 78.
Kahleah Copper tied Diana Taurasi’s record for most threes in one half in WNBA Finals.
The average total for Phoenix’s games this season is 162.9 points.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury WNBA Finals Game 2 Total Over/Under Prediction- WNBA Best Bets
The Aces and Mercury engaged in four regular season games this year. The total in three of those four went beyond 160. In fact, the Friday-night encounter turned out to be a high-scoring affair, totalling 175. Considering this, we think the upcoming game could also finish on similar lines with a total over 164.5 points.
The Aces, after Game 1 victory, and being home-court favorites, are favored to win Game 2 with a difference of more than two points, and -150 on moneyline. Here is an overview of my picks:
Picks
Odds, as on FanDuel
Total O 164.5 Points
-110
Spread: Aces: -2.5 Points
-112
A’ja Wilson O 25.5 Points
-115
Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces
-154
Dana Evans O 7.5 Points: Dana Evans is averaging 8.9 ppg in the playoffs and finished with an average of 6.9 ppg in the regular season. In Game 1 against the Mercury, she dropped 21 points, alongside A’ja Wilson, and we expect her to continue displaying the same kind of scoring prowess on Sunday.
A’ja Wilson O 25.5 Points: While Wilson was restricted to only 21 points in Game 1, she has an average of 25.4 ppg in the playoffs. Considering her previous performance, we believe she must be getting desperate to bring out her best show in Game 2. The four-time MVP could be wagered to score over 25.5 points in Game 2.
Kahleah Copper O 16.5 Points: Kahleah Copper, the leading Mercury scorer in Game 1, has an average of 15.8 ppg across eight playoffs appearances in 2025. Considering the need of the hour and her momentum, I expect her to score over 16.5 points.
Alyssa Thomas O 9.5 Rebounds: Thomas is leading the Mercury across multiple statistical categories in the playoffs, and rebounding is one of them. She is averaging 8.6 rpg, and had a 10-rebound game on Friday. Hence, we think she will pull off a similar performance on Sunday as well.
Main Pick: A’ja Wilson O 25.5 Points at -115 on FanDuel.
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Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game 2 Prediction
As stated, the Aces and the Mercury locked horns in four regular season games, and three of them ended with a margin of six points or less. In fact, the victory margin in Finals Game 1 was also three points. It means that both teams have given tough fights to each other, and it was definitely not an easy victory for Las Vegas.
Based on this, we think Game 2 will be played on the same lines. But, considering that the Aces are in winning momentum and have home-court advantage, the Mercury will yet again be on the receiving end of the defeat.
Spread/ Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces -2.5 at -150 on FanDuel
FAQs for Aces vs Mercury WNBA Finals Game 2
Who is favorite to win the Aces vs Mercury Game 2?
The Aces are favored to win by -2.5 points in Game 2 against the Mercury.
What is the over/under total points for Aces vs Mercury Game 2?
Total points for Game 2 between the Aces and the Mercury is set at 164.5 points.
What is the moneyline for Aces vs Mercury Game 2?
The moneyline is set at the Aces (-154) and Mercury at (+126).
Garima is a sports writer with around two years of experience in Indian sports and a newfound interest in the NBA. Inspired by the leadership of cricketing legend MS Dhoni, she wishes to bring in newer perspectives to the NBA fanatics with her writing.
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