Basketball / NBA W
28/09/2025 – 20:00
Odds updated on September 28, 2025 at 7:14 am
The Aces grabbed a 2–1 lead with an 84–72 Game 3 win built on Jackie Young’s 25 and Chelsea Gray’s 15, while A’ja Wilson hit at 6-for-20 (13 points) after opening with a made three and then missing 11 straight. Indiana shot 31.7% overall and 6-for-19 from deep, enduring nearly nine minutes without a field goal late, and couldn’t capitalize on Lexie Hull’s 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Kelsey Mitchell went 7-for-22, and Aliyah Boston finished 4-for-14 for 10 points as Las Vegas tightened the screws in the fourth to pull away. The Game 4 is on Sunday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, 3 p.m. ET on ABC, with Las Vegas looking to close and Indiana Fever trying to extend the series. The Fever need cleaner shot selection and better perimeter accuracy to keep the floor spaced without Caitlin Clark, who’s out for the season with a right groin injury.
Lexie Hull’s availability matters, too, given her back issues. The Las Vegas Aces have been in this spot often and just leaned on defense and backcourt control to take Game 3. If Indiana Fever pushes closer to its typical efficiency and keeps Boston involved early, we could see a Game 5, if not, Las Vegas’ experience likely carries them through.
| Recommended Bets |
Selection |
FanDuel |
BetMGM |
| First Half Spread |
Las Vegas Aces |
-168 |
-175 |
| First Field Goal |
Aliyah Boston |
+390 |
+270 |
| Winning Margin |
Aces by 6–10 |
+350 |
+415 |
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Game 4 Details
When: Sunday, September 28, 2025
Time: 09:30 pm ET
Venue: Gainridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: Fubo
With that matchup in mind, let’s break down the key betting angles and player props for Game 4.
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Total Over/Under Prediction – WNBA Best Bets
The total at 159.5 (-105) reflects how the series has played out with the Indiana Fever’s offense going cold for long stretches, while Las Vegas has leaned on defense and timely scoring. Game 3 finished at 156 points, right under this line, and the Fever’s shooting woes (35.6% FG, 7-for-23 from three) make the over a risk unless they bounce back to their season average.
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The spread of Aces -4.5 (-110) lines up with their late-game control in Game 3. Even with A’ja Wilson struggling, Las Vegas still pulled away by double digits, showing their depth and composure. The player prop on Lexie Hull over 9.5 points (+100) is interesting because she scored 16 in Game 3 and played heavy minutes with Indiana Fever shorthanded. If she keeps that role, the over has value.
Finally, the money line at Aces -200 reflects their experience and the Fever’s injuries as Caitlin Clark and others remain out, leaving Indiana thin. For the Fever to cover or win outright, they’ll need Aliyah Boston to establish herself inside and Kelsey Mitchell to be efficient, but the safer side remains Las Vegas Aces given how they’ve closed games.
| Bet Type |
Selection |
BetMGM Odds |
| Total |
Over 159.5 |
-105 |
| Spread |
Aces -4.5 |
-110 |
| Player Points |
Lexie Hull O 9.5 |
+100 |
| Money Line |
Aces |
-200 |
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Player Props Predictions – WNBA Betting Picks
Chelsea Gray O 10 (-128) Chelsea Gray has been steady all series, scoring 15 in Game 3 on 5-of-7 shooting while adding six assists. She’s averaging double figures against Indiana Fever across her career and has been efficient in playoff settings. With defenses keyed on A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young, Gray’s midrange and playmaking give her a strong path to clear 10 points.
NaLyssa Smith O 10 (-106) NaLyssa Smith has been a difference-maker since joining the Las Vegas Aces, scoring 16 in Game 3 and 18 in Game 2 against her former team. She’s shooting over 55% in the series and has punished Indiana inside when A’ja Wilson has struggled. At this line, her consistency makes the over the best value.
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Kelsey Mitchell O 20 (-150) Mitchell remains Indiana Fever’s top scoring option, but efficiency has been an issue. She had 21 in Game 3 but needed 26 shots to get there, including 3-for-11 from deep. The volume will always be there, and she’s cleared 20 in two of three games, but the Aces’ defense makes it a grind.
Main Pick – NaLyssa Smith O 10 (-106, FanDuel)
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Spread Prediction
The Aces -4.5 spread is built on how they’ve handled the Fever late in games. In Game 3, Indiana actually won the offensive rebounding battle 16–4, but it didn’t matter because Las Vegas forced long empty stretches and turned them into runs.
That’s the difference here as the Aces don’t need to dominate start to finish, they just need one decisive push. With Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray steady in the backcourt and A’ja Wilson unlikely to stay quiet two games in a row, the Las Vegas Aces has the tools to cover a modest number like -4.5 even if Indiana Fever keeps it close for three quarters.
Spread/Money Line Pick: Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
FAQs
Which player prop is drawing the most attention? NaLyssa Smith’s points line at 10 (-106) is the main focus. She’s scored 16 and 18 in her last two games, giving bettors confidence she can clear a modest number again, especially with Indiana’s defense stretched thin.
What’s the most intriguing total market? The over 159.5 at -105 is generating interest. Game 3 landed at 156, but both teams missed open looks and Indiana endured a nine‑minute drought. If shooting normalizes, the over has a realistic path.
Where’s the spread leaning? Las Vegas at -4.5 (-110) is the side most are backing. Even with A’ja Wilson struggling, the Aces still won by 12 in Game 3. Their ability to close late has bettors siding with them to cover a two‑possession margin.
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