Mar 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) (L) shakes hands with Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) (R) after their match on day nine of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti Head to Head Record, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Italian Open 2025 Semifinal

Winner will face Sinner or Paul in the final.

Mar 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) (L) shakes hands with Lorenzo Musetti (ITA) (R) after their match on day nine of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium.

In a rematch of this year’s Monte Carlo Masters final, Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti lock horns for a spot in the 2025 Internazionali BNL d’Italia summit clash on Friday. Both players produced magnificent victories against players who had their numbers in the past, to enter the final four. Keep reading to know more about this match-up and its rich history.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Preview

Lorenzo Musetti has self-admittedly been aided massively by the home fans this week. The 23-year-old Italian managed to take a set off Alcaraz in Monte Carlo, before collapsing in a tame effort. However, his fitness and quality of tennis seem to have levelled up at the Italian capital. He has defeated Virtanen, Nakashima, Medvedev and Zverev en route to the semifinal stage. Unfortunately, his past record against the four-time Grand Slam winner doesn’t brew encouraging signs.

It will be a battle of Paris Olympics medal winners in Friday’s first semifinal. While Alcaraz boasts a 13-1 clay court record this year, Musetti’s 78% service game win ratio plays into his hands. The Italian is showcasing career highs in terms of win percentage (81%), hold percentage (81%) as well as break percentage(26%) in 2025. On the other hand, Alcaraz has beaten the likes of Khachanov and Draper to reach this stage – meaning that he is back to his best.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Head to Head Record

Carlos Alcaraz leads the head to head against Lorenzo Musetti by 4-1. They have played each other once in 2025 – in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Musetti downed his Spanish counterpart in their first ever meeting on tour. Coming face-to-face in the final at Hamburg in 2022, the single-handed backhand maestro dug deep to oust a teenage Alcaraz and capture the title. Following this loss, ‘Carlitos’ turned the tables and won three straight matches against Musetti without dropping a set. In their most recent encounter, the duo played out a thrilling summit clash at the Principality.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Monte Carlo	Final	Carlos Alcaraz	3-6 6-1 6-0
2024 Miami	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6-3 6-3
2023 Beijing	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6-2 6-2
2023 Roland Garros	Round of 16	Carlos Alcaraz	6-3 6-2 6-2
2022 Hamburg	Final	Lorenzo Musetti	6-4 6-7(6) 6-4

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Career Comparison

Carlos Alcaraz	Category	Lorenzo Musetti
4	Grand Slams	0
18	ATP Singles Titles	2
0	ATP Doubles Titles	0
6	Masters-1000 Titles	0
6	ATP-500 Titles	1
Silver (Paris 2024)	Olympics Best Performance	Bronze (Paris 2024)
No. 3	Current World Ranking	No. 9

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Italian Open 2025 Prediction

Mark your calendars 📆

Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti last met one month ago in the Monte Carlo championship match 🫢

Stream their next meeting this Friday on the Tennis Channel app!#IBI25 pic.twitter.com/RO2NK7acVh
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) May 14, 2025

Considering he has not won a trophy at this tournament, Alcaraz will leave no stone unturned in his bid to reach the final. There is no doubt that Musetti has evolved into an expert at generating angles and extending points on slower surfaces. He displayed a masterful defence to attack performance against Zverev, and will look to do the same against the Spaniard. While this could go the distance, there is a sense that Alcaraz’s power will be the x-factor on Friday.

Prediction: Alcaraz in three sets.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Italian Open 2025 Betting Odds

The money line suggests a strong probability of Alcaraz emerging as the winner in this match (74% likelihood). Here’s what the betting market predicts:

Carlos Alcaraz Win: -285

Lorenzo Musetti Win: +225

(According to BetMGM)

ATP

ATP 1000

Betting

Carlos Alcaraz

Italian Open

Jannik Sinner

Lorenzo Musetti

Tennis

Tommy Paul

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.