UFC Vegas 113 heads to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas on February 7, delivering a bantamweight main event and explosive main card action. The event features Mario Bautista defending his spot against Vinicius Oliveira in a five-round technical battle, plus dangerous flyweight and heavyweight clashes!
This is our main card predictions article, focusing on the six biggest fights and where we are finding value in the UFC betting odds. You can find all of our latest UFC predictions and betting picks on our main UFC page. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 113’s main card.
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Best Bet #1 – Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira: Over 3.5 Rounds
Pick: Bautista vs Oliveira Over 3.5 Rounds (-128) at FanDuel
Mario Bautista faces Vinicius Oliveira in the UFC Vegas 113 main event. Bautista is 16-3 overall with elite striking volume, while Oliveira brings a 23-3 record with exceptional defensive metrics to a 5-round bantamweight battle.
Bautista’s game plan is clear: push relentless pace, pressure Oliveira with volume, and bank rounds through activity. However, his zero submission average and moderate knockout power against defensive opponents create minimal finish threat before the championship rounds.
Oliveira’s counter-striking approach prioritizes survival and timely shots over aggressive finishing. His elite 80% takedown defense should neutralizes Bautista’s wrestling threats, keeping the fight in striking range where his superior damage avoidance keeps him safe.
Best Bet #2 – Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi: Horiguchi by Decision
Kyoji Horiguchi faces Amir Albazi in a pivotal flyweight matchup with title implications. Horiguchi enters as a sizable favorite with championship experience and superior striking metrics. Albazi is 17-2 but relies heavily on wrestling and control time.
This comes down to Horiguchi’s technical superiority and pace advantage overwhelming Albazi’s low-volume approach. Horiguchi’s superior striking volume and accuracy create sustained offensive pressure that banks rounds with judges favoring activity.
Albazi’s path requires slowing the fight with wrestling and banking control time, but Horiguchi’s 54% takedown defense should be adequate against Albazi’s moderate wrestling volume . At -120 for Horiguchi by decision, this offers excellent value. We estimate Horiguchi by decision around 60-65% of his win scenarios, making this the highest-probability outcome.
Best Bet #3 – Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault: Under 1.5 Rounds
Pick: Oleksiejczuk vs Barriault Under 1.5 Rounds (-168) at FanDuel
Michal Oleksiejczuk faces Marc-Andre Barriault in a dangerous middleweight striker matchup. Oleksiejczuk brings southpaw power and superior defensive metrics. Barriault enters with aggressive brawling mentality but catastrophic defensive vulnerabilities.
This is a pure finish-heavy scenario that screams early knockout. Oleksiejczuk’s southpaw power against Barriault’s terrible 50% striking defense and massive 5.63 strikes absorbed per minute creates immediate finishing opportunities.
Barriault’s aggressive style means he willingly trades in the pocket rather than using defensive movement. The Canadian’s brawling mentality forces exchanges where his poor defensive fundamentals become fatal against technical power strikers.
At -168 for under 1.5 rounds, this offers solid value. We estimate this outcome around 70-75% probability.
Value Play – Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev: Almeida Moneyline
Jailton Almeida faces Rizvan Kuniev in a crucial heavyweight matchup. Almeida brings relentless grappling pressure with 6.66 takedowns per fight and elite submission threat (2.0 attempts). Kuniev counters with elite 90% takedown defense but limited offensive tools.
This matchup favors Almeida’s overwhelming grappling volume and multiple finishing paths. While Kuniev’s 90% takedown defense is exceptional, Almeida’s relentless volume creates accumulating opportunities where even elite defenders eventually break.
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Kuniev’s path requires keeping the fight standing and landing heavy shots, but his poor 45% striking defense and higher damage absorption create vulnerability. The Russian’s knockout power is real at heavyweight, but Almeida’s defensive metrics suggest he can survive exchanges while hunting takedowns.
At -160, Almeida is correctly priced as a moderate favorite. We estimate his win probability around 65-70% of the time, offering solid value on the moneyline.
Odds updated as of February 7, 12:29 AM ET. Prices can change, so always check live odds before betting.
How We Are Betting On UFC Vegas 113
The middleweight bout between Oleksiejczuk and Barriault is the most finish-heavy fight on the card. Consider under totals and method-of-victory bets for better value.
Avoid stacking all six main-card moneyline favorites. We expect at least one competitive upset opportunity, particularly in the Almeida vs Kuniev heavyweight clash where one punch changes everything.
The main event features elite defensive metrics meeting volume striking. Target overs and decision props rather than finish markets given Oliveira’s exceptional damage avoidance.
Championship rounds matter in the five-round main event. Bautista’s cardio and experience in longer fights create value in late-round props and Over 3.5 rounds.
UFC Vegas 113 Main Fight Card
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Bantamweight bout, 5 rounds
Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds
Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds
Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds
Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds
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