The middleweight division has always been one of the UFC’s most competitive weight classes. The 185-pound weight class demands fighters who can excel everywhere, making every matchup a potential chess match between different skill sets and fighting philosophies. Cam Rowston vs Andre Petroski is that kind of fight.
This UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs Reyes matchup represents a fascinating clash between a newcomer riding the high of a recent contract victory and a seasoned veteran looking to establish himself as a consistent contender. Rowston earned his UFC opportunity just weeks ago on Dana White’s Contender Series. Meanwhile Petroski brings years of octagon experience and a well rounded skill set that has troubled many rising prospects in the past.
Cam Rowston enters this contest standing 6’3″ with a massive 78 inch reach. His 12-3 record reflects steady improvement throughout his career, though his striking statistics reveal a more measured approach. Landing just 3.23 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy suggests he picks his shots carefully.
The concerning aspect of Rowston’s game shows up in his defensive wrestling statistics. With only 28% takedown defense, he’s vulnerable to grapplers who can close distance and drag fights to the ground. However, his 0.8 submission average per fight indicates he’s dangerous off his back and can threaten opponents even when in disadvantageous positions.
Andre Petroski (13-4) stands at 6’0” with a 73 inch reach. His statistics tell the story of a fighter who prefers to control where fights take place. He averages 3.21 takedowns per fight with solid 51% accuracy while maintaining excellent 86% takedown defense.
Where Petroski really separates himself is his submission game and ground control. Averaging 1.3 submissions per fight shows he’s constantly hunting for finishes once fights hit the mat. This makes him dangerous throughout every grappling exchange. His striking numbers might not jump off the page at 2.82 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, but he uses his hands primarily to set up takedown opportunities rather than hunt for knockouts.
The oddsmakers have spoken for this matchup. According to FanDuel, Andre Petroski comes in as a favorite at -174. Meanwhile, Cam Rowston sits as the underdog at +142. These odds reflect the betting public’s belief in Petroski’s experience and ground game.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -108. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-118) reflect that.
This matchup heavily favors Andre Petroski despite Rowston’s physical advantages and recent momentum. Petroski’s superior wrestling and submission skills should allow him to dictate where this fight takes place, nullifying much of what makes Rowston dangerous. The veteran’s ability to mix takedowns with improving striking creates multiple problems that the newcomer hasn’t faced at this level.
Rowston’s poor takedown defense becomes a major liability against someone with Petroski’s grappling credentials. While the Australian might find success early with his length and reach advantages, Petroski’s experience and conditioning should allow him to take over as the fight progresses and rounds accumulate.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Andre Petroski to win via unanimous decision.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Ron Chenoy – Imagn Images)
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