Nov 11, 2023; New York, NY, USA; Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) reacts after beating Matt Frevola (red gloves) during UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

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UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho – Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

The lightweight division has become a meat grinder. For every success story, there are ten fighters who get chewed up and spit out by the relentless pace and power at 155 pounds. French veteran Benoit Saint-Denis knows this reality better than most after getting knocked out by Dustin Poirier and brutally beaten by Renato Moicano in back-to-back losses. But the upcoming Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy showdown gives him a chance to prove those setbacks were just temporary speed bumps.

Meanwhile, Brazilian striker Mauricio Ruffy has been quietly building a seven fight winning streak that includes some genuinely spectacular finishes. The 28 year old made waves with his UFC debut knockout of Jamie Mullarkey and followed that up with a highlight reel destruction of King Green. Ruffy represents everything modern lightweight striking should look like: precise, powerful, and ruthlessly efficient. This weekend in Paris, these two explosive fighters meet in what should be a violent chess match between Saint-Denis’ grappling pressure and Ruffy’s precision!

Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy Preview

Benoit Saint-Denis, the 28 year old southpaw stands 5’11” with a 73 inch reach. His 14-3 record tells only part of the story. Saint-Denis throws 5.39 significant strikes per minute while landing 55% of his shots, showing he’s willing to trade leather with anyone. But, he allows 4.61 significant strikes per minute while defending only 41% of incoming damage, making him a walking target for accurate strikers.

Saint-Denis averages 4.19 takedown attempts per fight while landing 39% of them, constantly threatening to drag opponents into scrambles and submission battles. His 1.5 submission attempts per fight show he’s always hunting for a finish on the ground, and his 70% takedown defense means he can usually avoid getting taken down himself.

Mauricio Ruffy, the 28 year old orthodox fighter also stands 5’11” but owns a slight reach advantage at 75 inches. He lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute with an impressive 58% accuracy while absorbing 4.59 strikes per minute. His 61% strike defense might not sound incredible, but it’s significantly better than Saint-Denis’ 41%.

The most telling stat in Ruffy’s profile might be his complete lack of wrestling attempts. Zero takedown attempts in his UFC career suggests he has supreme confidence in his striking ability and sees no need to complicate matters by grappling. This one dimensional approach might seem risky, but when you can knock people unconscious as efficiently as Ruffy can, why mess with what works?

Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy MMA Betting Odds

The oddsmakers at FanDuel have installed Mauricio Ruffy as a solid -205 favorite. Meanwhile, Benoit Saint-Denis sits at +158 as the underdog despite fighting on home soil. These odds reflect the market’s belief that Ruffy’s striking precision will eventually find its mark against Saint-Denis’ leaky defense.

The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-280) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +210.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy Predictions And Picks

This matchup comes down to whether Saint-Denis can survive the early striking exchanges and drag Ruffy into chaotic grappling scrambles. The Frenchman’s best path to victory involves immediately pressuring for takedowns and turning this into a grinding submission battle. His experience advantage and home crowd support could provide just enough emotional fuel to overcome his technical disadvantages.

But those advantages might not matter against someone as precise and powerful as Ruffy. The Brazilian has shown he can end fights with single shots, and Saint-Denis’ 41% strike defense practically invites that type of highlight reel finish. Ruffy’s superior striking metrics indicate he should be able to time counters during grappling exchanges.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Mauricio Ruffy to win the fight via KO/TKO.

(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)

(Image Credit: Wendell Cruz – Imagn Images)

Benoit Saint-Denis

Mauricio Ruffy

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!