UFC 324’s heavyweight clash features surging contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta taking on legendary knockout artist Derrick Lewis in a crucial divisional bout. Cortes-Acosta looks to extend his winning streak and crack the top five rankings, while the 40-year-old Lewis aims to prove he still belongs among the elite. This 3-round main card bout promises violence with both men combining for 28 career knockouts.
Cortes-Acosta brings a 16-2 record with back-to-back first-round KO victories over Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev. Lewis enters with a 29-12 record and holds the all-time UFC record with 16 knockouts, most recently stopping Tallison Teixeira in 35 seconds. Cortes-Acosta is around a -325 favorite with Lewis at roughly +260 as the underdog.
Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis, including our UFC predictions, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.
Mini Fight Info Strip
Event: UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena
Weight class: Heavyweight bout
Fight length: 3-round main card fight
Date & time: Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Main card 9:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~10:00 p.m. ET
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Odds updated: January 21, 2026 – 8:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.
Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know
Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis.
Tale Of The Tape
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Derrick Lewis
Record
16-2
29-12
Age
34
40
Height
6’4″
6’3″
Reach
76″
79″
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Sig. Strikes Landed
4.46
3.36
Striking Accuracy
54%
49%
Takedowns
1.63
0.42
Takedown Defense
71%
64%
Submission Avg.
0.2
0.0
Cortes-Acosta holds a 1-inch height advantage and higher striking accuracy despite Lewis’ 3-inch reach edge. Both men land with knockout power but Cortes-Acosta has the volume edge. Lewis’ 64% takedown defense could be exploited by Cortes-Acosta’s wrestling. The age gap of six years heavily favors the younger Dominican.
Fighter Breakdown – Waldo Cortes-Acosta Analysis
Cortes-Acosta comes in with a 16-2 record including recent knockout victories over Shamil Gaziev, Ante Delija and Ryan Spann. The 34 year old Dominican is ranked #5 in the UFC heavyweight division and brings explosive finishing ability.
Strengths: Devastating knockout power with 12 career KOs. Excellent output and cardio for a heavyweight (4.46 strikes/min). Improving wrestling with solid top control. Never been finished in his career. Well-rounded with wins by KO, submission and decision.
Weaknesses: Only faced two ranked opponents (Spivac, Pavlovich), losing the decision to Pavlovich. Can be hit clean in exchanges. 71% takedown defense leaves openings. Relatively untested chin against elite power. First fight against a legendary finisher.
Betting Angles: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO (-105) is our primary method of victory play. His -325 moneyline is steep but reasonable against an aging Lewis. Under 1.5 rounds (+115) offers value given both men’s finishing rates.
Fighter Breakdown – Derrick Lewis Analysis
Lewis brings a 29-12 record with victories over Rodrigo Nascimento, Tallison Teixeira and Marcos Rogerio de Lima in his last three. The 40 year old holds the all-time UFC record with 16 knockouts and remains one of the sport’s most dangerous one-punch finishers.
Strengths: Unmatched knockout power and UFC knockout record (16). Incredible comeback ability. Devastating ground-and-pound finishing ability. Eight UFC fight night bonuses. Strong chin and durability against elite competition.
Weaknesses: Age 40 with significant mileage and accumulated damage. Low output striker (3.36 strikes/min). Poor cardio in extended fights. 64% takedown defense vulnerable to wrestlers. Submitted twice in recent years (Spivac, Almeida). Often loses early rounds before landing the bomb.
Betting Angles: Lewis’ +260 moneyline offers decent upset value for his one-punch power. Lewis by KO/TKO (+360) is his realistic path to victory. Fight doesn’t go the distance is appealing regardless of winner.
This is pure heavyweight violence. Cortes-Acosta has finished 3 of his last 4 opponents, while Lewis stopped his last two in the first round with a combined fight time of 1 minute 14 seconds. Both fighters historically struggle to consistently reach the judges. Cortes-Acosta will push pace early, and Lewis will hunt for the counter bomb. At -280 (implied 73.7%), we think this finishes around 80-85% of the time, offering value even at this price.
Building on our first bet, we see an early finish. Lewis’ last five fights averaged just 2.2 rounds, while Cortes-Acosta’s last three wins came in rounds 1, 1, and 2. Neither man has shown patience lately. At +115 (implied 46.5%), we think this hits closer to 55-60%, making it solid value.
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Small stake only. While Lewis winning by decision seems unlikely given his finishing rate, this massive price offers value in a specific scenario. If Cortes-Acosta presses too hard early and gasses himself, Lewis could survive the early storm and coast to a decision using his experience and ring generalship. Lewis has won 5 UFC fights by decision, proving he can get there when necessary. Keep stakes at 0.25-0.5 units maximum on this extreme longshot.
Prediction – Final Verdict
Official pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO
We are backing Cortes-Acosta to stop Lewis in the second round. The younger, more active fighter will most likely press forward early, weathering Lewis’ dangerous first-round power. Cortes-Acosta’s superior cardio and output should wear down the 40 year old Lewis, leading to a KO/TKO as Lewis slows and can no longer defend the volume. While Lewis’ power makes him dangerous until the final bell, the age and activity gap proves decisive.
How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card
Beyond the heavyweight violence, UFC 324 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.
Card Tips:
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong in the co-main is a dangerous swing fight. O’Malley on a two-fight skid makes his -210 price questionable.
Lewis’ age (40) and recent quick finishes suggest his conditioning for later rounds is questionable. Early finish props carry extra weight.
Cortes-Acosta’s recent form (3 first-round finishes in last 4) indicates he’s peaking at the right time. His method-of-victory props offer better value than straight moneyline.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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