UFC 324 heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, January 24, delivering the first UFC numbered event under the historic Paramount+ partnership. The card features an interim lightweight title fight between veteran knockout artist Justin Gaethje and submission specialist Paddy Pimblett, plus a crucial bantamweight battle as former champion Sean O’Malley looks to rebound against Song Yadong.
This is our main card predictions article, focusing on the five biggest fights and where we are finding value in the UFC betting odds. You can find all of our latest UFC predictions and betting picks on our main UFC page. Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324’s main card.
Paddy Pimblett challenges veteran Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight championship in the main event. Pimblett brings a 7-fight UFC win streak with a 23-3 overall record. Gaethje is 26-5 with devastating knockout power but enters at age 37 following a two-year layoff.
This matchup is a classic grappler vs striker scenario. Pimblett’s BJJ credentials are elite with 10 submission wins and 1.68 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His recent finishes of Bobby Green (triangle choke) and Jordan Leavitt (rear-naked choke) showcase his finishing instincts on the mat. Gaethje lands a massive 6.59 significant strikes per minute with 20 career knockouts, but his takedown defense is concerning at just 68% with minimal wrestling offense at 0.10 takedowns per 15 minutes.
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We expect Pimblett to press forward, absorb some shots, and eventually drag Gaethje to the mat where his submission game takes over. Pimblett lands 0.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never been stopped in 26 professional fights, showing his durability can survive Gaethje’s early power.
At +130 for Pimblett by submission, this represents excellent value. We estimate this outcome closer to 45% probability compared to the implied 43% at these odds. Gaethje’s minimal ground game and Pimblett’s relentless submission hunting make this our top bet on the card.
Best Bet #2 – Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas: Silva Moneyline
Natalia Silva faces former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in a pivotal women’s flyweight bout. Silva is 16-7 overall with back-to-back wins over top competition at 125 pounds. Namajunas is 15-7 at age 33 following inconsistent performances.
This comes down to momentum and natural size. Silva fights at her natural weight class and lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute compared to Namajunas’ 3.60, controlling pace and volume. Silva’s decision victory rate suggests she’ll grind out Namajunas over 15 minutes with superior cardio and output. Rose’s move up in weight at age 33 after losing her strawweight championship raises questions about her competitive fire.
Silva has looked sharp in her recent flyweight run, while Namajunas appears to be a fighter past her prime. We expect Silva to push the pace, land more strikes, and win a clear decision through volume and aggression. Rose’s technical skills remain sharp, but the combination of age, weight class adjustment, and Silva’s momentum makes this a tough assignment.
At -340, Silva is correctly priced as the heavy favorite. We estimate her win probability around 75%, making this a strong play despite the juice. The size and activity advantages are too significant.
Former bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley faces Song Yadong in a crucial bantamweight matchup. O’Malley is 18-3 looking to rebound from his loss to Merab Dvalishvili twice. Yadong is 22-8-1 with recent wins over top competition including a decision victory over Henry Cejudo.
This is a pure point-fighting matchup that screams decision. O’Malley’s entire game is built around distance management with his 72-inch reach advantage, landing clean strikes from the outside while avoiding damage. He averages 6.30 significant strikes per minute with exceptional movement and footwork.
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Yadong has never been stopped by strikes in 31 professional fights, making him one of the most durable bantamweights in the UFC. His relentless forward pressure at 4.58 strikes per minute guarantees volume, but he lacks the one-punch knockout power to threaten O’Malley’s chin. We expect O’Malley to circle, land from distance, and control range for three full rounds.
The key is O’Malley’s fight IQ. He’s not a reckless finisher, he’s a technical point-fighter who prioritizes winning rounds over hunting knockouts. Against a durable opponent like Yadong who pushes forward but can’t finish, O’Malley will stick to his game plan and win a clear decision through volume and accuracy.
At +100 for O’Malley by decision, this offers tremendous value. If O’Malley wins (which we estimate around 55% probability), it’s almost certainly by decision given Yadong’s durability and O’Malley’s style. We’re essentially getting even money on what should be closer to -120 or -130.
Value Play – Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO
Rising heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta faces veteran knockout artist Derrick Lewis in a heavyweight banger. Cortes-Acosta is 16-2 with violent finishing power, landing high significant strikes per minute. Lewis is 29-12 with legendary one-punch power but enters at age 40 with declining reflexes.
This is a pure finish-heavy matchup. Lewis has 16 UFC knockouts and can end any fight with one shot, but his defensive liabilities have become glaring in recent fights. Cortes-Acosta brings youth, speed, and overwhelming volume that should break down Lewis’ aging chin. The Dominican brawler’s pressure-heavy style forces Lewis to either land his signature counter right hand early or absorb accumulating damage.
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We favor Cortes-Acosta to walk through Lewis’ power, land volume strikes, and secure a stoppage in rounds one or two. Lewis is being written off by oddsmakers at +260, but his chances diminish with every year past 35 in the heavyweight division. Cortes-Acosta’s activity and youth should overwhelm the aging veteran.
At +105 for Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO, this offers value. We estimate this outcome around 50-55% probability. If Cortes-Acosta wins, it’s almost certainly by knockout given his finishing rate and Lewis’ defensive vulnerabilities.
Odds updated as of January 23, 12:00 PM ET. Prices can change, so always check live odds before betting.
How We Are Betting On UFC 324
The heavyweight bout between Cortes-Acosta and Lewis is the most finish-heavy fight on the card. Consider method-of-victory bets over straight moneylines for better value.
Several main-card fighters, especially O’Malley coming off two losses, are fighting with their backs against the wall. These situations can produce either desperation or inspired performances.
Avoid stacking all five main-card moneyline favorites. We expect at least one underdog to have a realistic upset path, particularly Gaethje’s experience and Lewis’ one-punch power.
I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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