UFC 321- Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Predictions, Betting Odds And Best Bets

Brazilian jiu-jitsu royalty collides in Abu Dhabi this Saturday. The UFC 321 co-main event features a rematch five years in the making, and this time there’s gold on the line. Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern will decide the next women’s flyweight champion. Their first meeting back in 2020 saw Dern edge out a decision victory when both fighters were still climbing the ranks. Now they’re headliners fighting for a belt, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Jandiroba stands 5’3″ with a 64 inch reach and brings a 22-3 record into this championship fight. At 37 years old, she’s the older, more experienced fighter. Her striking lands at just 38% accuracy while absorbing 2.55 strikes per minute. But her grappling tells the real story with 2.37 takedowns per fight and 1.8 submission attempts.

Dern measures 5’4″ with a 63 inch reach and sports a 15-5 record. She has better striking numbers at 40% accuracy but absorbs more damage at 3.90 strikes per minute. Her takedown game is weaker at just 0.89 per fight with terrible 17% accuracy and 25% defense. However, she averages 1.2 submission attempts and remains one of the most dangerous ground fighters in the division.

Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Predictions And Picks

Since losing their first encounter, Jandiroba has gone 6-1 in the UFC and evolved significantly. Her wrestling and top control have improved dramatically. She doesn’t need flashy submissions to win anymore. Jandiroba can grind out rounds, control position, and force opponents into bad spots. That patient, methodical approach could frustrate Dern throughout five rounds.

Dern’s game relies on creating chaos and scrambles where her elite BJJ can shine. She wants high-paced exchanges on the ground where she can threaten submissions from guard. But Jandiroba’s wrestling allows her to dictate positioning and avoid those dangerous scrambles. When Jandiroba secures top position, she’s content to control and advance slowly rather than rush into Dern’s traps. The striking advantage also leans toward Jandiroba despite neither woman being known for their hands.

If we bet on the fight, we are going against the grain with Virna Jandiroba to win via unanimous decision.

Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern MMA Betting Odds

The moneyline on FanDuel shows Mackenzie Dern at -178. Meanwhile, Virna Jandiroba is the +138 underdog. Those odds reflect Dern’s name value and finishing ability more than the actual matchup dynamics.

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The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -106. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-122) reflect that.

Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern Best Bets

Here are the best best for Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern fight at UFC 321.

Jandiroba Moneyline (+138)

This offers the best value on the board. Fans are getting plus money on a fighter who matches up perfectly against Dern’s style. She has shown tremendous improvement since their first fight and is very likely to edge out a win.

Jandiroba vs Dern Fight Goes the Distance (-106)

This bet makes sense given both fighters’ grappling pedigree. When two elite BJJ elites meet in MMA, submissions often cancel out, leading to decision victories.

(Image Credit: David Yeazell – Imagn Images)

Zaid Quraishi

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I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!