The Nurmagomedov name carries weight in mixed martial arts. Khabib retired undefeated and became a legend. Now his cousin Umar wants to carve his own path to greatness in the bantamweight division. He faces Mario Bautista at UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. This Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista matchup features two fighters who simply refuse to quit, though their styles couldn’t be more different.
Nurmagomedov stands 5’8″ with a 69 inch reach and owns an 18-1 record at just 29 years old. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute with excellent 57% accuracy while absorbing only 2.15 strikes. His wrestling dominates with 3.26 takedowns per fight at 39% accuracy and rock-solid 78% takedown defense.
Bautista matches the reach at 69 inches but stands slightly taller at 5’9″ with a 16-2 record. He throws significantly more volume at 6.13 strikes per minute but with lower 49% accuracy. He absorbs way more damage at 4.45 strikes per minute with just 55% defense. His wrestling numbers show 1.67 takedowns per fight at 33% accuracy with concerning 67% takedown defense. That gap in defensive wrestling could be the story of this fight.
Nurmagomedov’s technical game should overwhelm Bautista from the opening bell. The Dagestani uses kicks and straight punches to set up his wrestling entries. When Bautista presses forward with his wild volume, he can shoot underneath and drag him down. That’s the pattern all night. Once grounded, Bautista can survive but won’t escape. The Dagestani rides position, lands controlled strikes, and stacks minutes of cage control. The striking exchanges favor Nurmagomedov too.
Bautista needs chaos and volume from the opening bell. He must keep the fight standing at all costs by staying mobile and keeping his hips back. His 6.13 strikes per minute could overwhelm if he maintains that pace without gassing. Stuff the early takedowns to break Umar’s confidence. Make this a brawl instead of a technical chess match.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Umar Nurmagomedov to win via unanimous decision.
According to FanDuel, Umar Nurmagomedov enters as a massive -650 favorite. Meanwhile, Mario Bautista is a +450 underdog. These odds reflect Nurmagomedov’s technical superiority across the board.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at -225. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (+174) reflect that.
Here are some of the best bets for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista fight at UFC 321:
This offers the best value for confident backers. You are getting better odds than the moneyline while backing the most probable outcome based on both fighters’ recent history and stylistic matchup.
This makes sense based on their recent performances. Bautista’s durability through four straight decisions combined with Umar’s patient, controlling style suggests judges will decide this one.
This bet essentially says the fight reaches the third round. Given Bautista’s toughness and Umar’s methodical approach rather than hunting finishes, this is the safest play for bettors.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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