The middleweight division is heating up at UFC 320. Two dangerous finishers are set to collide in Las Vegas. Abus Magomedov vs Joe Pyfer is the kind of fight that rarely goes the distance. Both men carry knockout power and submission skills that have ended fights quickly throughout their careers.
Pyfer’s UFC journey has been a rollercoaster ride worth watching. He stormed into the promotion, finishing three straight opponents with brutal efficiency. Then Jack Hermansson brought him back down to earth in a main event reality check. Since that setback, Pyfer has won two consecutive fights, though the hype train hasn’t quite regained its initial speed. Magomedov took a different path to this moment. He ran into buzzsaw performances against Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. Those losses could have derailed many careers, but the Russian fighter bounced back impressively. Three straight wins have proven he belongs among the division’s better competitors, and he seems to have fixed the cardio issues that plagued him earlier.
The stats tell an interesting story about these two athletes. Magomedov stands 6’2″ with a 78 inch reach, giving him a three inch advantage over Pyfer’s 75 inch reach. He lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, while absorbing 3.68 strikes per minute. Magomedov’s striking defense sits at 56%, which isn’t elite but gets the job done. He averages 2.65 takedowns per fight with 57% accuracy, and he’s never taken down himself in the UFC. That perfect 100% takedown defense is seriously impressive and shows his wrestling foundation.
Pyfer brings a different energy to the cage entirely. He’s slightly more active on the feet, landing 3.74 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy. He absorbs fewer shots than Magomedov at 3.20 per minute. His striking defense of 54% is comparable to his opponent’s numbers. Pyfer averages 1.35 takedowns per fight at just 42% accuracy, and his takedown defense stands at only 60%. That’s a significant gap compared to Magomedov’s perfect record. Pyfer does submit opponents more frequently, averaging 0.7 submissions per fight compared to Magomedov’s 0.2.
The oddsmakers have made up their mind about this matchup. FanDuel has installed Joe Pyfer as a solid favorite at -260. Meanwhile, Abus Magomedov comes in as the underdog at +196.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +194. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-260) reflect that.
This fight presents a striker vs kicker matchup with wrestling wildcards. Magomedov (28-6-1) needs to use his reach advantage and kicking arsenal to keep Pyfer at the end of his longest weapons. His front kick could be crucial for maintaining distance and discouraging Pyfer’s forward pressure. If Magomedov can replicate what Hermansson did, using movement and angles to avoid Pyfer’s power shots, he’s got a real chance.
If Pyfer can weather the early storm and start landing body shots while pressuring forward, Magomedov might wilt in the later rounds. Pyfer’s boxing power is legitimate, and he only needs one clean combination to change the fight completely. The wrestling element adds intrigue beyond the striking battle. Magomedov’s perfect takedown defense against Pyfer’s modest 60% suggests grappling exchanges would favor the German. But takedowns cost energy, and Magomedov can’t afford to burn his cardio wrestling if he wants to maintain his kicking offense.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Joe Pyfer to win via KO/TKO.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta – Imagn Images)
mma I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!
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