Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Ninth seed Taylor Fritz will meet the wild card Stan Wawrinka in the third round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne. Fritz opened his campaign with a four-set win over Valentine Royer, then stabilized with a straight-set result over Vit Kopriva, the kind of progression you want from a seeded favorite entering the second week.
Wawrinka, on the other hand, has already spent real fuel just to get here. He needed a comeback win over Laslo Djere, then went the distance in a five-set marathon over qualifier Arthur Gea. At 40 and ranked No. 139, Wawrinka can still spike a set with clean ball-striking, but the betting angle is whether his body can handle another long match against a top-10-level server.
Fritz’s 2025 stats support his status as the rightful favorite with 867 aces, 79% first-serve points won, and 40% break-point conversion. The return numbers (26% first-serve return points won) aren’t elite, but they’re good enough. Now, books are implying Fritz controls the match, but the totals and set markets still price in a non-trivial chance that Wawrinka steals a set simply by holding and forcing a tiebreak.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Australian Open, Third Round (R32)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Five Sets
Date & Start Time: January 24, Not before 5:00 PM AEDT Local Time
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Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Taylor Fritz 3-0 (-135, FanDuel).
At Fritz -1450, the moneyline is correctly priced but useless from an efficiency standpoint. The more interesting story is what the books are doing with the set markets: FanDuel is hanging Fritz 3-0 at -135, which is materially cheaper than laying the Under 3.5 sets (-142).
The case for Fritz sweeping is largely structural. His 2025 serve stats are elite for hard courts, with 79% first-serve points won and a massive 867 aces. And that reduces variance because he can avoid extended return battles. Wawrinka’s own 2025 ATP stats (69% first-serve points won, 34% break-point conversion) show he’s not consistently dominant on serve at the tour level anymore. Plus his two long opening matches suggest there’s a stamina ceiling.
Fritz’s return profile (26% first serve return points won) is stable rather than crushing, so he may not generate constant breaks early. But given Wawrinka’s accumulated court time and the physical demands of a third straight grind, the probability-weighted angle still points toward Fritz having the edge.
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
Taylor Fritz Recent Form
Tokyo – Final
Shanghai Masters – R32
Basel – R16
Paris Masters – R16
ATP Finals – Group Stage
World #9 Taylor Fritz easily beats Bit Kopriva 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(4) to reach the 3rd round at the #AusOpen… against Stan Wawrinka! pic.twitter.com/wcsRYe63I0
Stan Wawrinka has the lead 2-1 in his head-to-head over Taylor Fritz. In 2016 Wimbledon, the Swiss won but not with ease and in four sets. Their next encounter, two years later in Tokyo, was a straight-set win; however, most recently, Fritz, in 2023 took his revenge with a straight-set win.
Year
Winner
Round
Event
Score
2023
Taylor Fritz
Round of 32
Monte Carlo
7-6(1-0), 6-2
2018
Stan Wawrinka
Round of 32
Tokyo
6-3, 6-4
2016
Stan Wawrinka
Round of 128
Wimbledon
7-6(4), 6-1, 6-7(2), 6-4
Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Taylor Fritz wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Fritz 3-1 (+108, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option rather than a primary one.
How can I watch Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
Match
Taylor Fritz vs. Stan Wawrinka
Date
January 24, 2026
Start Time
Not before 5:00 PM AEDT
Tournament
Australian Open 2026
Event Type
Men’s Singles (Grand Slam)
Surface
Outdoor Hard Court
Court
John Cain Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.
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