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Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Fourth seed Daniil Medvedev meets Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round of the 2026 Qatar Open in Doha. Medvedev advanced with a straight-sets win over Juncheng Shang, while Tsitsipas also defeated wild card Moez Echargui without dropping a set.
Medvedev enters ranked world No. 11 and already has a 2026 title after winning Brisbane, though his form since has been uneven. Even so, his stats remain elite on outdoor hard courts. In 2025, he won 76% of first-serve points and an elite 33% of first-serve return points, backed by 534 aces and 552 break-point opportunities. His ability to neutralize pace and extend rallies continues to translate into consistent pressure at this level.
Tsitsipas, now ranked No. 33, has struggled for rhythm. His early exits in Adelaide, Melbourne, and Rotterdam follow an injury-disrupted 2025 season. Though his last season was marked by multiple withdrawals due to back and leg issues. While his serve efficiency remains strong (76% first-serve points won in 2025), his return output (28% first-serve return points won) lags behind Medvedev’s, particularly on hard courts.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games (-122, BetMGM)
Book: Best price at BetMGM
Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | – | Medvedev -286 / Tsitsipas +225 |
| Game Handicap | – | Medvedev -3.5 (-122) / Tsitsipas +3.5 (-109) |
| Total Games | – | Over 22.5 (-102) / Under 22.5 (-130) |
| Set Betting | – | Medvedev 2-0 (-109) / Tsitsipas 2-0 (+500) |
| Total Sets | – | Over 2.5 (+145) / Under 2.5 (-278) |
Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games (-122, BetMGM)
The moneyline reflects Medvedev’s dominance in the matchup, but -286 leaves little room for variance in a best-of-three format. Tsitsipas still possesses enough serve quality to avoid complete collapse.
The -3.5 game handicap provides a cleaner way to express Medvedev’s edge. His superior return stats and ability to win extended baseline rallies have consistently pressured Tsitsipas’ backhand wing historically. Even in competitive sets, Medvedev has repeatedly separated late, which aligns well with this margin.
Daniil Medvedev has the lead 10-4 in his head-to-head over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Medvedev has won the last three meetings on hard courts, all in straight sets. While Tsitsipas has had success on slower surfaces and in longer formats.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Daniil Medvedev | Shanghai | Round of 16 | 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| 2023 | Daniil Medvedev | Vienna | Semifinal | 6-4, 7-6(6) |
| 2023 | Daniil Medvedev | Rome | Semifinal | 7-5, 7-5 |
| 2022 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | ATP Finals | Round Robin | 6-3, 6-7(11), 7-6(1) |
| 2022 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Cincinnati | Semifinal | 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-3 |
| 2022 | Daniil Medvedev | Australian Open | Semifinal | 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1 |
| 2021 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | Roland Garros | Quarterfinal | 6-3, 7-6(3), 7-5 |
| 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | Australian Open | Semifinal | 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 |
| 2019 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | ATP Finals | Round Robin | 7-6(5), 6-4 |
| 2019 | Daniil Medvedev | Shanghai | Semifinal | 7-6(5), 7-5 |
| 2019 | Daniil Medvedev | Monte Carlo | Round of 16 | 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 |
| 2018 | Daniil Medvedev | Basel | Quarterfinal | 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 |
| 2018 | Daniil Medvedev | US Open | Round of 64 | 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 |
| 2018 | Daniil Medvedev | Miami | Round of 128 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
Projection: Daniil Medvedev wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Daniil Medvedev 2-0 (-109, BetMGM). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Qatar Open include Tennis Channel (United States), TSN & RDS (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland), beIN Sports (Middle East & North Africa), Eurosport (parts of Europe), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), and Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand).
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Tennis TV (the official ATP Tour streaming platform), as well as on regional broadcasters’ streaming services such as Stan Sport, Sky Go / NOW, TSN+ / RDS Direct, Discovery+ and FanCode in the Indian subcontinent.
| Match | Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas |
| Date | February 18, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not Before 3:00 PM AST Local Time |
| Tournament | Qatar Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (ATP 500) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Khalifa International Tennis Complex, Doha, Qatar |
| TV Coverage | Tennis Channel (United States), TSN & RDS (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland), beIN Sports (Middle East & North Africa), Eurosport (parts of Europe), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand) |
| Live Streaming | Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform), Stan Sport, Sky Go / NOW, TSN+ / RDS Direct, Discovery+, FanCode |
Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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