Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Fourth seed Daniil Medvedev meets Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round of the 2026 Qatar Open in Doha. Medvedev advanced with a straight-sets win over Juncheng Shang, while Tsitsipas also defeated wild card Moez Echargui without dropping a set.
Medvedev enters ranked world No. 11 and already has a 2026 title after winning Brisbane, though his form since has been uneven. Even so, his stats remain elite on outdoor hard courts. In 2025, he won 76% of first-serve points and an elite 33% of first-serve return points, backed by 534 aces and 552 break-point opportunities. His ability to neutralize pace and extend rallies continues to translate into consistent pressure at this level.
Tsitsipas, now ranked No. 33, has struggled for rhythm. His early exits in Adelaide, Melbourne, and Rotterdam follow an injury-disrupted 2025 season. Though his last season was marked by multiple withdrawals due to back and leg issues. While his serve efficiency remains strong (76% first-serve points won in 2025), his return output (28% first-serve return points won) lags behind Medvedev’s, particularly on hard courts.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Qatar Open, Round of 16 (R16)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: February 18, Not Before 3:00 PM AST Local Time
Court: Khalifa International Tennis Complex, Doha, Qatar
Best Bet: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games (-122, BetMGM)
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 Games (-122, BetMGM)
The moneyline reflects Medvedev’s dominance in the matchup, but -286 leaves little room for variance in a best-of-three format. Tsitsipas still possesses enough serve quality to avoid complete collapse.
The -3.5 game handicap provides a cleaner way to express Medvedev’s edge. His superior return stats and ability to win extended baseline rallies have consistently pressured Tsitsipas’ backhand wing historically. Even in competitive sets, Medvedev has repeatedly separated late, which aligns well with this margin.
Daniil Medvedev has the lead 10-4 in his head-to-head over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Medvedev has won the last three meetings on hard courts, all in straight sets. While Tsitsipas has had success on slower surfaces and in longer formats.
Year
Winner
Event
Round
Score
2024
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai
Round of 16
7-6(3), 6-3
2023
Daniil Medvedev
Vienna
Semifinal
6-4, 7-6(6)
2023
Daniil Medvedev
Rome
Semifinal
7-5, 7-5
2022
Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Finals
Round Robin
6-3, 6-7(11), 7-6(1)
2022
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Cincinnati
Semifinal
7-6(6), 3-6, 6-3
2022
Daniil Medvedev
Australian Open
Semifinal
7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-1
2021
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Roland Garros
Quarterfinal
6-3, 7-6(3), 7-5
2021
Daniil Medvedev
Australian Open
Semifinal
6-4, 6-2, 7-5
2019
Stefanos Tsitsipas
ATP Finals
Round Robin
7-6(5), 6-4
2019
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai
Semifinal
7-6(5), 7-5
2019
Daniil Medvedev
Monte Carlo
Round of 16
6-2, 1-6, 6-4
2018
Daniil Medvedev
Basel
Quarterfinal
6-4, 3-6, 6-3
2018
Daniil Medvedev
US Open
Round of 64
6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
2018
Daniil Medvedev
Miami
Round of 128
2-6, 6-4, 6-2
Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Daniil Medvedev wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Bet: Daniil Medvedev 2-0 (-109, BetMGM). Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.
21+. AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA/MD/MA/MI/NJ/OH/PA/TN/ VA/WV/WY only. Offer not available in DC/MS/NV/NY/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.
How can I watch Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Qatar Open include Tennis Channel (United States), TSN & RDS (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland), beIN Sports (Middle East & North Africa), Eurosport (parts of Europe), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), and Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand).
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Tennis TV (the official ATP Tour streaming platform), as well as on regional broadcasters’ streaming services such as Stan Sport, Sky Go / NOW, TSN+ / RDS Direct, Discovery+ and FanCode in the Indian subcontinent.
Match
Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Date
February 18, 2026
Start Time
Not Before 3:00 PM AST Local Time
Tournament
Qatar Open 2026
Event Type
Men’s Singles (ATP 500)
Surface
Outdoor Hard Court
Court
Khalifa International Tennis Complex, Doha, Qatar
TV Coverage
Tennis Channel (United States), TSN & RDS (Canada), Sky Sports (UK & Ireland), beIN Sports (Middle East & North Africa), Eurosport (parts of Europe), Nine Network / Stan Sport (Australia), Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand)
Live Streaming
Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform), Stan Sport, Sky Go / NOW, TSN+ / RDS Direct, Discovery+, FanCode
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