Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz meets 11th seed Daniil Medvedev in a blockbuster semifinal at the 2026 Indian Wells Open. Both players entered the tournament with first-round byes. Alcaraz opened with a straight-set win over Grigor Dimitrov, followed by a comeback victory against Arthur Rinderknech. Next, he defeated Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie in straight sets. Medvedev, meanwhile, has yet to drop a set, advancing past Alejandro Tabilo, Sebastian Baez, Alex Michelsen, and Jack Draper.
Alcaraz arrives as the world No. 1 and arguably the most complete player on tour. His dominant 2025 run featured titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, London, Cincinnati, the US Open, and Tokyo. So far, in the 2026 season, he has continued that momentum with titles in Melbourne and Doha. Statistically, the Spaniard remains elite with 74% of first-serve points won while capturing an outstanding 35% of first-serve return points. His 44% break-point conversion rate across 727 opportunities shows his consistency in pressurizing opponents.
The Final Four couldn't be complete without the World No.1
Medvedev enters with confidence of his own, having already lifted trophies in Brisbane and Dubai this season. The Russian produced 534 aces during the 2025 season while winning 76% of his first-serve points and converting 37% of break opportunities. While his 33% first-serve return points place him in the very top tier, Medvedev’s deep defensive positioning often extends rallies. This style also forces opponents into errors.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Tournament & Round: Indian Wells Open, Semifinal (SF)
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: March 14, Not Before TBD PDT Local Time
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds
Given below are the latest odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Picks
Our Pick: Under 21.5 Total Games (-120, FanDuel)
The matchup dynamics and recent history between the two strongly favor Alcaraz. Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6-2 and has consistently controlled their meetings on hard courts, particularly at Indian Wells, where he won both the 2023 and 2024 finals.
From a statistical perspective, Alcaraz holds edges both in serve efficiency and return pressure. That context explains why the market leans heavily toward two-set outcomes, with the Under 2.5 sets priced as steep as -225. Rather than laying the heavy moneyline, the more efficient price comes through Under 21.5 games, which aligns with the most likely script of Alcaraz controlling rallies, generating multiple break chances, and closing the match.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the rivalry 6–2 overall and has dominated their recent meetings. Crucially, he defeated Medvedev in the Indian Wells finals in both 2023 and 2024.
Year
Winner
Event
Round
Score
2024
Carlos Alcaraz
Beijing
Semifinal
7-5, 6-3
2024
Carlos Alcaraz
Wimbledon
Semifinal
6-7(1), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4
2024
Carlos Alcaraz
Indian Wells
Final
7-6(5), 6-1
2023
Carlos Alcaraz
ATP Finals
Round Robin
6-4, 6-4
2023
Daniil Medvedev
US Open
Semifinal
7-6(3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2023
Carlos Alcaraz
Wimbledon
Semifinal
6-3, 6-3, 6-3
2023
Carlos Alcaraz
Indian Wells
Final
6-3, 6-2
2021
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon
Round of 64
6-4, 6-1, 6-2
Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop
Projection: Carlos Alcaraz wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Prop: Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-0 (-150, FanDuel). Given that this is a higher-risk bet, it is advised to use it as a secondary angle.
Up to $300 Bonus Bets per day for 10 days (max $3,000 Bonus Bets total).
21+ and present in AZ/CO/CT/IA/IL/IN/KS/LA (permitted parishes only) /MA/MD/MI/NJ/NY/OH/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY. Minimum $10 first deposit required. Promotion Bonus will be credited to your account within 72 hours settlement of Qualifying Wager. First online real money wager only (minimum $5). Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expires in 14 days. Bonus bets and NFL Sunday Ticket code will be issued within 72 hours of bet placement. See full terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
How can I watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev on TV and live stream?
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Indian Wells Open include Tennis Channel (United States), Sky Sports Tennis / Sky Sports (United Kingdom & Ireland), TSN (Canada), beIN Sports (Australia), and Sky Sport NZ (New Zealand).
Streaming options vary by region and typically require subscriptions. Live streaming is available globally on Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform). The Tennis Channel App / Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), the TSN app / TSN+ (Canada), beIN CONNECT (Australia), and Sky Sport Now (New Zealand) are available.
Tennis TV (official ATP streaming platform), Tennis Channel App / Tennis Channel Plus (USA), Sky Go / NOW (UK & Ireland), TSN app / TSN+ (Canada), beIN CONNECT (Australia), Sky Sport Now (New Zealand).
I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.
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