May 4, 2024; Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRAZIL; Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) fights against Steve Erceg (blue gloves) during UFC 301 at Rio Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

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Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne Preview, Predictions And MMA Betting Odds

Get to know the betting odds, predictions and picks for the upcoming Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne fight at UFC Vegas 109!

May 4, 2024; Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRAZIL; Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) fights against Steve Erceg (blue gloves) during UFC 301 at Rio Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Steve Erceg was originally scheduled to face Alex Perez, then got switched to Hyun Sung Park, and now finds himself across from Ode Osbourne this Saturday at UFC Vegas 109. Third time’s the charm! The Australian has dealt with many opponent changes, but that’s the fight game.

Both fighters need this win badly but for different reasons. Erceg shot up the rankings like a rocket ship after his UFC debut on June 2023 He earned a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja in May 2024, faster than most fighters get their second fight. Since then, he has dropped three straight since then, though those losses came against elite competition. Osbourne represents the perfect bounce back opportunity. He is a dangerous veteran who can either propel Erceg back toward relevance or send him tumbling down the bantamweight ladder. The fight takes place at 135 pounds, moving both men up from their usual flyweight home.

Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne Preview

Steve Erceg stands 5’8″ with a 68 inch reach. He brings volume and accuracy to every exchange. ‘Astroboy’ throws 4.45 significant strikes per minute with solid 46% accuracy, though he absorbs 4.03 strikes coming back at him. His striking defense sits at 52%, which isn’t terrible but leaves room for improvement. Where Erceg struggles is takedowns as he averages just 0.84 attempts per fight with a measly 26% success rate. His takedown defense is better at 63%, and he rarely hunts submissions with only 0.3 attempts per bout.

Osbourne stands 5’7″ with a massive 73 inch reach. He operates differently, preferring calculated bursts over constant pressure. He lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy while absorbing 3.82 strikes. His striking defense checks in at 46%, making him slightly more hittable than Erceg while his finish rate sits just under 77%. Osbourne’s grappling numbers are modest at 1.11 takedown attempts with 28% accuracy and 65% takedown defense. He hunts submissions twice as often as Erceg with 0.6 attempts per fight.

Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne MMA Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have made their choice clear. According to Fandeul, Steve Erceg enters as a -590 betting favorite. Meanwhile, Ode Osbourne comes back as a significant underdog at +390. The bookmakers see this as Erceg’s fight to win.

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The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is higher and the odds (-220) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +154.

Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne Predictions And Picks

This matchup screams classic striker versus finisher. Steve Erceg needs to avoid Osbourne’s power shots while implementing his volume based game plan. His recent struggles came against elite flyweights, and moving up to bantamweight against a different style could provide the reset he desperately needs.

Osbourne’s best chance involves catching Erceg with something big early. His reach advantage and southpaw stance create natural problems for orthodox fighters. If he can hurt the Australian early, his finishing instincts should take over.

If we bet on the fight, we are going with Steve Erceg to win via unanimous decision.

(Image Credit: Jason Silva – Imagn Images)

Ode Osbourne

Steve Erceg

UFC vegas 109

Zaid Quraishi

mma

I am a dedicated MMA and Boxing content writer at The Playoffs. I was instantly hooked on MMA after watching the fight between Lyoto Machida vs. Gegard Mousasi back in 2014, and since then, i have been an avid writer with a deep love for the sport and its techniques, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the sport. My favorite aspect of working at The Playoffs is the creative freedom it provides. The diverse range of topics, from listicles and SEO to news articles, keeps me engaged and motivates me to continuously improve my skills! I aim to capture the excitement of the combat sports world in my writing, acting as the middleman between fighters and their die-hard fans. It is kind of like a referee, but with words!