The biggest stage of the NBA is here. On Thursday, 06/05, the Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Thunder defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1 in the West Finals, while the Pacers had an impressive 4-2 tally in the East Finals against the New York Knicks. Can the underdog Pacers rattle the Thunder to begin the series? Go through the spread, total, and player props predictions here.
The Pacers are in for their biggest challenge yet
Both teams have gone 12-3 during their respective Conference runs. Both of them are adept at forcing a quick-paced game. They also have big men who can defend all the way to the perimeter. Indiana and Oklahoma City are also brilliant in crunch-time situations, especially the Pacers. Then what separates the two?
Thunder guard and 2024-25 Regular Season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be the biggest difference-maker here. He has averaged around 30 PPG during the last two series on an efficient clip. On the other hand, Pacers Floor Manager Tyrese Haliburton has been the most clutch player in the postseason, and elevated his game during the ECF, tallying 21 PPG(Had averaged less than 18 PPG in the previous two series).
Meanwhile, the role players’ composition is pretty much the same. Jalen Williams (Playoffs-20.4 PPG) can be an effective second option for the Thunder. Pascal Siakam (21.1 PPG) is also an ideal second option for the Pacers. This is going to be Siakam’s second trip to the Finals, which will give him a marginal mental edge.
In terms of the rest of the role players, the Pacers have an offensive edge while the Thunder have a defensive edge. One area where Indiana will have to be extremely careful is the turnovers. The Thunder have forced an NBA record 18 TOPG thus far. On the other hand, the Pacers boast of a 2.21 turnovers-to-assists ratio, and their 28.1 APG remains the highest in the postseason. What a mouth-watering battle!
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | PG/SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, C: Thomas Bryant.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
Both teams have averaged around 117 PPG, which sums up the high-scoring nature of their battles. On the defensive front, the Thunder have given up around 106 PPG while the Pacers have conceded around 113 PPG, pretty much following their regular-season trends. At any rate, there is a high chance that the bookmakers’ projections of a 230ish score come true here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points: The Pacers have allowed the opponent’s best offensive player to average over 30 points a game in each of their three series. Thus, it will not be a surprise if SGA hits the 35-point mark here.
Tyrese Haliburton O 9.5 assists: Haliburton averaged an impressive 9.5 APG in the ECF series. He dished 11 or more assists in four of the six games. I think he will hit the 10-assist mark in Game 1 too.
Chet Holmgren O 2.5 blocks: Holmgren averaged 1.6 blocks per game in the WCF Finals, but registered 2-3 blocks in 3 of the 5 games. I expect him to hit a similar terrain here.
Main pick: Assists: Tyrese Haliburton O 9.5 Assists for +100 at FanDuel
The Thunder are the obvious favorites there. They are a much better defensive team than Indiana, and their offense is nearly on the same level thanks to SGA. However, Indiana’s fighting spirit can’t be emphasized enough. They have made the most unfathomable comebacks in recent history. The bookmakers favor the Thunder by 10 points or so, but I think Indiana will cover the spread here.
Betting Lines:
Safe Spread/Money Line Pick: Spread: Pacers +8.5 for + 100 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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