The 2025 NBA Finals have arguably been the best of the 20s decade. On June 22, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers will clash in the title-deciding game of the championship round.
During Game 6, the Pacers pieced together an extraordinary 108-91 win in another impressive team effort. Can the Pacers turn the tables again to lift their first franchise title? Check the spread, total, and player props predictions here.
The Pacers’ “never-say-never” attitude pushes Thunder to the brink
The Pacers’ campaign has been full of amazing comebacks. They have been down by as much as 7 points with a minute left and have come back. It’s astounding that it happened during a game in each of the four series they have played so far.
When they were down 2-3 in the series entering Game 6, the Pacers proved that they can be dominant, too. Their defense threw the Thunder off the sets, and to be honest, the young team played their worst basketball of the season in the game.
Indiana just had a 3-point lead in the first quarter, but OKC looked out of gas from there. The Pacers put this game out of reach in the second quarter after extending their lead to 22. A 26-18 third quarter paved the way for a big blowout.
The Thunder recovered some pride through a 31-18 fourth quarter, but it was too little, too late.
It was another signature Pacers effort. Six players scored in the 10-20 points range, and sixth man Obi Toppin led the way with 20 points. Meanwhile, for the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a night to forget.
He scored just 21, exactly 9 points below his playoffs average of 30 PPG. But more than that, he committed 8 turnovers. It was a rare occasion when the Thunder committed more turnovers than their opponents (21-10).
This was perhaps the Pacers’ most impressive win in the playoffs, and the Thunder’s role players have their work cut out to support the reigning MVP, SGA. No matter who wins, it has been one of the best series in recent NBA history.
Pacers Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Tyrese Haliburton | SG: Andrew Nembhard | SF: Aaron Nesmith | PF: Pascal Siakam | C: Myles Turner
Key bench players: SG: Benedict Mathurin, PG: TJ McConnell, C: Thomas Bryant.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing to report as such.
Thunder Expected Starting Lineup
PG: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | SG: Luguentz Dort | SF: Jalen Williams | SF: Chet Holmgren | C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Key bench players: SG: Cason Wallace, SG: Alex Caruso, SG: Aaron Wiggins.
Injuries/Updates: Nothing significant to report
The total has been in the 220-230 range during four of the six games. In the last game, it was a series low of 199, which was 20+ below the projection. The Pacers are yet to score more than 116 this series, which is a point below their pre-Finals playoffs average of 117 PPG.
Meanwhile, the Thunder have scored 120 or more twice. I believe the Thunder will have a big scoring night on their home floor.
The Pacers may also cash in with 110+. So, I see a high-scoring end to the series. I am pretty comfortable betting “Over” on the projected mark of the mid-210s.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O 33.5 points: SGA had scored 34 or more in three of the first four games of the series. But he has been under the mark for two straight games. However, I see him finishing the series with a 35+ points masterpiece to nab the Finals MVP award.
Pascal Siakam O 20.5 points: I see Siakam signing off on a high. He has scored 20 or more in three of the last four games. I believe he will be in the 21-25 range here.
Jalen Williams O 22.5 points: The Thunder forward has been up-and-down through the playoffs, but saved his best for the Finals. He scored 16 in the last game but had compiled 26 or more in the three games before that. I see him scoring at least 23 here.
Main pick: Points: Jalen Williams O 22.5 points for -102 at FanDuel
The Pacers’ herculean efforts have shaken the Thunder. The bench depth difference has played out in favor of Indiana and has perhaps been the single biggest factor. However, the Thunder also knows how to respond when they are on the pump.
They will have the home-court advantage, which has mattered in this series as both teams have gone 2-1 on their home floors. This can be a close game till the middle of the fourth quarter,r but I see the Thunder covering the spread here.
It is risky considering the Pacers have covered their spread handsomely in more than 67% of their matches. Thus, I will pick them for -6.5, just a point below the projections.
Betting Lines:
Safe Spread/Money Line Pick: Spread: Thunder -6.5 for -124 at FanDuel
Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer-Pool Photo via Imagn Images
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